PUNCHING ABOVE OUR WEIGHT

The big statement back in the 1980's was always that we (Australia) were "punching above our weight". It was true then and is probably still true now.

The only difference is that the past thirty years have seen us relegated down a couple of divisions.

Back then we were a medium/heavyweight. Today we're very much one in one of the lighter competitions.

That's fine. The point is to recognise it, as our ASEAN friends do. So when China occupies and creates islands in the South China Sea, we may be very unhappy about it; we may choose to protest verbally; but sending airplanes and ships? Really?

What's the point, as I asked in this piece in today's Canberra Times . . .

courtesy, CSIS

HAS MALCOLM LOST THE PLOT?

No, actually. 

Despite some of the headlines about "Chaos in the Government" and the latest Morgan Poll (Morgan - does this normally wildly inaccurate poll still have credibility for precision?) marking the government down by less than the polls margin of error, I reckon Turnbull's just not operating the way we in the media are used to. 

My wife, Cath McGrath, had a go at this in a column for SBS yesterday . . . 

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/02/10/comment-australian-political-journos-and-junkies-are-addicted-drama 

My own take is slightly different . . . 

Starting to Blog again . . .

RAAF KC30 and Super Hornets taking off from Al Minbad, 2014

Aaah, I've been away.

Too busy to post, I thought.

But now I've finally come to realise I'm not posting for you, but for myself . . . to keep my own thoughts in order.

So I better make doing this a part of my normal day's activity again. It just requires a bit of discipline.

THE FUTURE OF WORK

This piece begins anchored in the current domestic debate about the Budget, but that's not what it's about.

This man doesn't even know what's coming

courtesy SMH

It's about this.

outback australia image

The new wave of computerisation of work will change everything,

As I wrote in the Canberra Times, not even journos are safe . . .

ANOTHER TAKE ON THE BRITISH ELECTION

When one is never enough.

This column, written first, appeared today in the Canberra Times . . .

BRITAIN

There's an inevitable tendency to regard elections as immutable; a "decision of the people's will"; something that will "change everything".

Maybe that's true.

Outside No 10 for another 5 years

Courtesy The Telegraph

This piece for the Strategist considered the two significant ways in which the UK has changed . . .

REDEFINING REASONS FOR ACTING

I'd been tempted to headline this yarn as "split over ISIL", or "Andrews and Abbott disagree about why we're in Iraq". 

Unfortunately, although possibly justified neither of these assertions are quite true. 

Defence Minister Kevin Andrews at the RUSI

When we went into Iraq Tony Abbott insisted Daesh was a "death cult".

The key point is that Andrews specifically rejected this as a reason to deploy forces. 

He drew a more logical picture of why we're involved, by distinguishing between nation-states (which, implicitly, one can deal with) and other forces (operating outside the Westphalian system), as this column for the Canberra Times details . . . 

The Name Of the Rose . . .

There's a brilliant short passage at the beginning (p15) of Umberto Eco's book, the Name of the Rose, where the ageing Benedictine narrator puts down his feelings about the declining state of the world:

"the young no longer want to study anything, learning is in decline, the whole world walks on its head, blind men lead others equally blind and cause them to plunge into the abyss, birds leave the nest before they can fly, the jackass plays the lyre, oxen dance. Mary no longer loves the contemplative life and Martha no longer loves the active life, Leah is sterile, Rachel has a carnal eye, Cato visits brothels, Lucretius becomes a woman. Everything is on the wrong path . . ."

I've been terrible in not keeping the blog up-to-date, I'm afraid. 

This is Tuesday's piece for the Canberra Times. 

Reuters image

This is about Gallipoli - or today. 

Or this column is about today - and the past . . . 

SUBMARINES

It's possible to justify choosing any of the new submarine bids. 

The Swedish/Australian one? We did that last time and it worked. 

The French? Has the potential to go nuclear. 

The German? Worth pursuing. 

The Japanese? Possibly, but not if it locks us into an alliance with Tokyo; will be built in Japan; and if the Japanese won't explain any of the advantages publicly. 

How many hulls in this picture?

We'd be better off without one, as I suggest in this piece for the Canberra Times . . .

NOW LONG CAN HE HOLD ON?

I can examine my heart and say I wish Tony Abbott no harm.

But I don't think that he'll be prime minister come July.

There's no recovery once you're on the ropes

The ineluctable drumbeat of history tells us once authority is lost it can never be recovered.

I laid out the prognosis in this piece for the Canberra Times . . .

THE FOREIGN ISSUE

Tony Abbott claims he should remain PM because he's strong on defence, security and foreign affairs issues.

Strong, maybe, but effective?

Personally, I don't believe so.

As this article for todays Canberra Times suggests . . .

(PS They gave it the headline)

Candour

Norman Abjorensen kicks off his latest piece for Inside Story with a great quote: 

"In his 2011 book, Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class, Owen Jones describes how, in his final year at Oxford a decade ago, he heard a senior member of the party (widely believed to be David Cameron) speak with blunt candour at an informal gathering: “What you have to realise about the Conservative Party is that it is a coalition of privileged interests. Its main purpose is to defend that privilege. And the way it wins elections is by giving just enough to just enough other people.”

• 1.Alexander Wendt40.76%
• 2.R
• 32.73%
• 4.James Fearon24.82%
• 5.Kenneth Waltz23.23%
• 6.Joseph Nye Jr.17.32%
• 7.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita13.20%
• 8.Samuel Huntington11.51%
• 9.Martha Finnemore11.19%
• 10.Robert Jervis11.09%
• 11.Stephen Walt10.77%
• 12.Kathryn Sikkink8.76%
• 13.Peter Katzenstein7.92%
• 14.Beth Simmons7.18%
• 15.David Lake6.76%

ONE QUESTION

Journalists are paid to make stories. We write new ones every day.

Danger -journalist at work

But sometimes people don't want the stuff that we serve up daily - they just want to skip to the punch-line at the end.

You instinctively 'know' what this is when you pause to think about it for a second or two. You 'know' how things will work out in the long run.

I harnessed that knowledge to write about this year in politics.

We'll hear a lot, this year, about Tony Abbott, but you know how it will end up.

Badly.

As I wrote in today's Canberra Times . . .

THINKING, THINKING . . .

End of the holidays.

Time to sit down and start working again. How better to begin than by thinking about thinking?

A slightly younger looking Melissa at the AIIA

The Lander Institute kicks the new year off with its annual survey of think-tanks, and so this column begins there.

But what about other organisations? Unfortunately, the government has slashed funding for them over the past year.

As I wrote in the Canberra Times, It makes one wonder if we really are a knowledge nation . . .

JE NE SUIS PAS CHARLIE

Very often there are no easy answers, but perhaps the worst response of all is a hashtag "like". 

I believe in free speech, but I don't believe in insulting people intentionally. 

This was an attempt to explain my feelings in the Canberra Times . . . 

CHRISTMAS IN AUSTRALIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

It's Christmas time, and Santa's little elf has good reason to be satisfied with himself. 

Christopher Pyne's advertising campaign's a real treat!

But I'm not sure we will be hearing much about our forces in the Middle East this Christmas. 

Who ever thought anyone would be nostalgic for TK?

As this article for the Canberra Times suggests. 

Merry Christmas. You don't have to believe in anything to enjoy the presents . . . 

AFGHANISTAN - SYDNEY

NOBODY can be sure exactly how the terrible actions of a deranged lone gunman in Sydney will play out.

The "National Security Cabinet" is meeting as I write this . . . why, I'm not sure.

Image courtesy The Australian 

I'd actually begun writing this column some time ago.

It's not about terror, or Martin Place, at all.

It's really about what we're doing - or rather, not doing - in Iraq.

SAS soldiers - image from Herald Sun

There are certainly no troops fighting against Daesh, at any rate.

I had to rewrite the column to reflect the events in Sydney. It's a pity that those events have meant the impact of the piece will inevitably be diluted . . .

A NEW SUBMARINE

We want to buy a new submarine.

The only question is; which one?

A French nuclear submarine - one we won't be getting

The problem is the government won't share any of its thinking about the project.

And this is not the only area where the government's failed to explain its thinking, as this column for todays Canberra Times pointed out . . .

WHOSE ABC?

It's certainly not my ABC.

I think it's Scott's, personally.

My ABC . . .

A CEO needs to believe in his vision. After years of being told he's correct, he inevitably grows until he believes his vision is the only correct one. He stops reflecting the desires of the shareholders/stakeholders, because he knows - or thinks he knows - what's needed.

Scott's certainly not reflecting the desires of the government, as this column for today's Canberra Times makes clear . . .