tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-59281647761275389742024-02-21T18:38:45.729+11:00Nic StuartNicholas Stuart is a columnist with the Canberra Times.
Nick Stuart has written three books,
Kevin Rudd: An Unauthorised Political Biography;
What Goes Up: Behind the 2007 Election; and
Rudd's Way: November 2007 - June 2010.Nick Stuart, Nicholas Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07664320617342513026noreply@blogger.comBlogger289125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-90291318366661024462016-02-23T14:27:00.000+11:002016-02-23T14:32:16.611+11:00PUNCHING ABOVE OUR WEIGHTThe big statement back in the 1980's was always that we (Australia) were "punching above our weight". It was true then and is probably still true now.<br />
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The only difference is that the past thirty years have seen us relegated down a couple of divisions.<br />
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Back then we were a medium/heavyweight. Today we're very much one in one of the lighter competitions.<br />
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That's fine. The point is to recognise it, as our ASEAN friends do. So when China occupies and creates islands in the South China Sea, we may be very unhappy about it; we may choose to protest verbally; but sending airplanes and ships? Really?<br />
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What's the point, as I asked in this piece in today's Canberra Times . . .<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11pt;"><i>courtesy, CSIS</i></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">SOUTH CHINA SEA<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Don’t misunderstand the stakes in the
South China Sea. Beijing is deliberately, emphatically and determinedly
occupying rocks within the so-called nine-dash line as part of its unilateral
assertion of sovereignty. It will not back down. Australia has, essentially,
two choices: either accept what’s going down or choose war. It’s that stark,
although there’s also a corollary. The more we huff and puff over this issue,
the more we protest against China’s actions, the weaker we’ll eventually look.
Why? Because nothing we can do will change the mainland’s stance. The only
surprise is that people who should know much better think we can achieve
anything through out ‘protests’. It’s time to get real. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">These waters are one of the last bits of <i>terra
nullius</i> - unclaimed land - in the world. Of course, even that statement is
not quite true because the sea (or bits of it) have been claimed by all of
China, Taiwan, the Phillipines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. The
problem is that, since the end of World War Two, these rival nations have never
had the capacity to enforce their claims by creating territory. Until today.
Now China is actually occupying the water it’s claimed by both building islands
and establishing facilities, like oil wells, to use the supposed resources.
Today Beijing doesn’t just have the economic might to turn submerged rocks into
islands, but also the military power to shoulder aside the rival claimants.
It’s capacity to turn a reef that’s only visible at low tide into an airbase
ringed with missiles suggests Beijing is not in the mood for negotiating
alternative outcomes. China also refuses to be bound by international
tribunals, just like the United States. Superpowers are different that way. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Both Malcolm Turnbull and China’s
President Xi Jinping drew on the historian Thucydides to warn of the
ever-present danger of accidentally stumbling into a war. They referred to the
passage suggesting the dominant power (in Ancient Greece, Sparta, today the US)
to accomodate the rising force (Athens, or China). But the ancient author wrote
another passage that bears more relevance for Australia; one that both Turnbull
and Julie Bishop might like to note. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Halfway through the Peloponnesian War in
416 BC, Athens demanded tribute from the neutral island of Melos. The islanders
wouldn’t pay. The Athenian’s didn’t bother to reason with the Melians, simply
insisting that “the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they
must”. The islanders appealed to the laws of the gods but the Athenians were
dismissive, insisting that might is right. After a siege the city was captured:
adult men were executed; women and children sold into slavery. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Sometimes there’s just no reasoning with a
rising superpower. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">There’s concern that the HQ-9
surface-to-air missile that’s been deployed threatens civilian airlines. It
might, although we don’t even know what variant of the device is on the
islands. It might be the HQ-19 variant, a slightly different (but very
advanced) warhead which instead of being designed to attack is intended to
protect Chinese territory against intercontinental ballistic missiles in their
terminal stages. The tenders are also, quite literally, just pulled up on the
beach. What’s the long-term plan here? We just don’t know. Navigating in
uncertain waters doesn’t make any sense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">And this is the crucial element. It’s
illogical to believe Australia should go to war to keep open the very sea lanes
which take our goods to China. It’s a non-sequitur. More than a century ago,
when the US was becoming a superpower, it had no difficulty discovering its own
unilateral voice and telling other countries to keep out of the Caribbean. It
had no problem invading Cuba, for example, and the Phillipines. It aggressively
seized overseas territories from ageing colonial powers in order to become one
itself. Beijing’s actions are, by comparison, almost timid and polite. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The other point is that we can’t do
anything about the South China Sea. The Navy calls what they’re doing when we
sail or fly in this region a Freedom of Navigation exercise, using the
abbreviation FON. A much better acronym might be FONE (pronounced ‘phoney’)
because that’s exactly what we’re engaged in. It’s as if we were heading down
the road and suddenly swerved in to drive through someone’s front yard. You may
have proved you can, but so what? Why, exactly, is it so vital to Australia’s
national interests that these waters are kept out of China’s hands when the
neighbouring countries may be dissatisfied with the land grab but aren’t doing
anything about it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They know the
risks are too great. Don’t forget what we’re talking about here - war.
Beijing’s not about to back down. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The game’s up. Anyone who’s silly enough
to fulminate about this issue is full of hot air. It’s a lost cause.
Particularly when there’s a far more vital bit of empty land that we should be
very concerned about. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The whole reason the South China Sea’s
become an issue is that it wasn’t ‘owned’ by anybody. The thing is there’s
another bit of the globe that’s also regarded as <i>terra nullius,</i>
Antarctica.<i> </i>What happens in that continent will be far more important
for our future than anything that happens in the waters off China. We’ve already
claimed a huge swathe of Antarctica and, although development is prohibited,
we’re doing virtually nothing with this huge area. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The Chinese antarctic presence, however,
has grown quickly since 1981. It’s currently running three research stations on
that continent, all in the area claimed by Australia. Two years ago Xi Jinping
visited the Australian Antarctic Division’s HQ in Hobart. At that time he
reassured scientists that Beijing had no intentions of mining either the frozen
landmass or its waters. Let’s hope that’s still China’s attitude in 2048 when
the treaty expires. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-49706774048496644592016-02-11T09:45:00.003+11:002016-02-11T09:46:55.381+11:00HAS MALCOLM LOST THE PLOT?<div>
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No, actually. </div>
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Despite some of the headlines about "Chaos in the Government" and the latest Morgan Poll (Morgan - does this normally wildly inaccurate poll still have credibility for precision?) marking the government down by less than the polls margin of error, I reckon Turnbull's just not operating the way we in the media are used to. </div>
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My wife, Cath McGrath, had a go at this in a column for SBS yesterday . . . </div>
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http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/02/10/comment-australian-political-journos-and-junkies-are-addicted-drama </div>
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My own take is slightly different . . . </div>
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Malcolm Turnbull's real election priority is to reshape the Senate</h1>
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<img alt="Labor and the Coalition will be keen to reduce the size of the Senate's crossbench at the next election." src="http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/k/8/w/b/9/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gmo7o2.png/1454902641507.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom;" title="" /><br />
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Labor and the Coalition will be keen to reduce the size of the Senate's crossbench at the next election.</div>
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Malcolm Turnbull has two problems; one is political and one economic. His difficulty is they can't both be addressed simultaneously. But it turns out that finding a solution simply requires putting them in the right order; the twist is this will mean doing things the wrong way round.</div>
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The biggest, most serious and hugely troubling issue the nation faces is the dysfunction of our tax system. It's not just that the government's spending more money than it's got coming in, that's only half the problem. The real nub of the issue is the system's flawed. It distorts economic activity aggravating inequality. Everyone agrees it needs to be addressed. Urgently. The problem is any change will create losers who will create difficulties for a government heading to an election.</div>
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And that's why real change, the sort of radical reform that could genuinely fix things, has been shelved. Make no mistake. Turnbull understands the need to address the tax system, it's just he's come to the conclusion that this is not the time. That's because he's got another priority, one he can't put off.</div>
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<img alt="Malcolm Turnbull has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to change electoral laws and reshape Parliament." src="http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/1/0/4/9/3/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gmo7o2.png/1454902641507.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom;" title="" /><br />
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Malcolm Turnbull has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to change electoral laws and reshape Parliament.</div>
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The media and public debate's been hijacked by the chatter about tax but don't confuse this for the main game. The point is not simply to design the best system but also to get it implemented while surviving politically. It's important to remember that this is an election year. It makes no sense to play around creating uncertainty at a time when voters' appointment with the ballot booths is already looming into view. That's why Turnbull's no longer fixated on dealing with his most serious problem, tax. The critical importance of his polling numbers is that they're offering him a prospect that's too good to turn down: an election that could entrench his government's dominance not just for one term, but the indefinite future.</div>
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To understand the mechanics all you need to grasp is that the constitution doesn't actually work the way we think it does. Because elections for the Senate and House are usually held at the same time, for example, we think their terms are in sync. They're not (except in the territories). That's why senators who were voted in on September 7, 2013, (such as Jacqui Lambie) didn't actually take their seats until July 1, 2014. With full six-year terms, they'll be there until June 2020 (unless there's a double-dissolution election in the meantime). There's also a record number of crossbench senators (18) and only one of these (John Madigan) comes up for re-election this year.</div>
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The trouble is that if the government dissolves both houses in an attempt to clear the Senate, the quotas for election are halved, because each state would elect 12 senators rather than just six. This would mean getting rid of the current mob but chances are – particularly the way the voting system is structured – we'd still end up with someone else who managed to game the system and garner the preferences. That's why the idea of calling a double dissolution is a hollow threat. It's like the Prime Minister holding a pistol to his head and threatening to shoot. Chances are that any new Parliament would prove just as ungovernable as the previous one. Unless ...</div>
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Following this logic is the key to understanding Turnbull's thinking about how he frames the next election, when he'll call it, and why a double-dissolution is still an option. The constitution gives senators so much power but is actually silent when it comes to the far more relevant detail about how they're to be elected, leaving it to (wait for it) Parliament to fix the detail. This is why, if Labor and the Coalition were prepared to get together, they could quickly scrap the flawed system we've got at the moment. The trouble has been that the opposition (whomsoever it may be) has absolutely no interest in fixing things up for the government. It's always threatened to join with the crossbenchers to disallow any reform and that's why the chaos has continued. Until now.</div>
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The Coalition currently holds 33 seats and Labor 25. The Greens hold another 10, there's Nick Xenophon, and seven others. The significant change today is that, since Christine Milne moved on from the leadership, the Greens have abandoned their dogmatic refusal to negotiate. This forced Labor to reconsider its position as well. All these parties stand to gain from an appropriate reform of the electoral laws, whereas Xenophon probably just believes it's the right thing to do. Because it is.</div>
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No one wants to talk about the detail, because as soon as it leaks out the Senate will become unworkable. The minor senators will throw huge hissy-fits and yell about the end of civilisation, as if getting elected on their tiny fraction of a primary vote is somehow democratic. The issue is timing. Turnbull's problem is that no date is perfect. He needs to make some choices. Hold off until September (and remain saddled with the crossbench for years) or capitalise on the moment and call a double-dissolution straight after the budget.</div>
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Changing the Electoral Act offers Turnbull a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape Parliament. That's why tax can wait for now. There are no simple answers. Consider the supposedly all-inclusive GST. It now covers less than half our spending: so why should the taxpayer subsidise elective surgery and private school education twice over, through tax exemptions and grants? But questions like these are off limits to politicians desperately courting swinging voters. That's why the government relies on changes to super to provide the illusion it's acting. In the meantime, Turnbull will be focusing on the long game, which means parliamentary reform.</div>
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There's never been a more exciting time to be a senator.</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /><br />Read more: <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-real-election-priority-is-to-reshape-the-senate-20160208-gmo7o2.html#ixzz3zo9XOyWO" style="border: 0px; color: #003399; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-real-election-priority-is-to-reshape-the-senate-20160208-gmo7o2.html#ixzz3zo9XOyWO</a><br />Follow us: <a href="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=aBfWCmwwCr37XTadbiUzgI&u=smh" style="border: 0px; color: #484848; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">@smh on Twitter</a> | <a href="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=aBfWCmwwCr37XTadbiUzgI&u=sydneymorningherald" style="border: 0px; color: #484848; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">sydneymorningherald on Facebook</a></span></div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-49823386163624306442016-02-11T09:37:00.003+11:002016-02-11T09:37:36.320+11:00Starting to Blog again . . . <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3xERf5YppI9j5qwSZBA7JQM_fuRrlhNfMcVlA4t96dCk_TRepXqnp09QbDeIWoKjF3LLu-JDoVzAqx3HURVECzWVRQumTf1kLJgIZ0b_tXL6MbkqnN31w56iG1Kd6SwuyKGtSo2fWVG27/s1600/images.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3xERf5YppI9j5qwSZBA7JQM_fuRrlhNfMcVlA4t96dCk_TRepXqnp09QbDeIWoKjF3LLu-JDoVzAqx3HURVECzWVRQumTf1kLJgIZ0b_tXL6MbkqnN31w56iG1Kd6SwuyKGtSo2fWVG27/s1600/images.jpeg" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>RAAF KC30 and Super Hornets taking off from Al Minbad, 2014</i></div>
<br />
Aaah, I've been away.<br />
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Too busy to post, I thought.<br />
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But now I've finally come to realise I'm not posting for you, but for myself . . . to keep my own thoughts in order.<br />
<br />
So I better make doing this a part of my normal day's activity again. It just requires a bit of discipline. <br />
<br />
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-13526053892122039222015-05-19T20:44:00.002+10:002015-05-19T20:44:39.304+10:00THE FUTURE OF WORKThis piece begins anchored in the current domestic debate about the Budget, but that's not what it's about.<br />
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<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/1/m/b/7/m/y/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.1md0fi.png/1427914933522.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/1/m/b/7/m/y/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.1md0fi.png/1427914933522.jpg" height="179" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>This man doesn't even know what's coming</i></div>
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<i>courtesy SMH</i></div>
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It's about this.<br />
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<a href="http://www.outback-australia-travel-secrets.com/image-files/mining-job-western-australia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.outback-australia-travel-secrets.com/image-files/mining-job-western-australia.jpg" height="224" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>outback australia image</i></div>
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The new wave of computerisation of work will change everything,<br />
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As I wrote in the Canberra Times, not even journos are safe . . .<br />
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">We need a budget to address the future . . .<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The really great thing about the budget is
that now you can legitimately blow $20,000 on a cappuccino machine, huge plasma
TV and reclining couch and feel good about it. To avoid the GFC Labor handed
out measly cheques that were worth barely a thousand dollars each. Now Joe
Hockey’s showing them how to stimulate the economy properly. His bargain bonus
giveaway – sorry, business related purchase deduction – has all the finesse of
a closing down sale. Everything , indeed, must go! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Labor spent the surplus it inherited; last
week Hockey blew the children’s inheritance as well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Newspapers carried thick budget
wraparounds emblazoned, “BUDGET - WHAT <b><i>YOU </i></b>NEED TO KNOW”. The
truth is, we were lying. We marched in lock-step with the politicians by
relentlessly focussing on the present rather than the future; ‘what’s going on
now’ instead of ‘what’s about to happen’. This is revealed by the time-line.
The focus is very firmly fixed on the next election. Anything beyond that might
as well be in the never-never. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">There's nothing (apart from a couple of
laughingly far-fetched predictions that the world economy is poised to recover)
venturing anywhere beyond the current political cycle. This is what the huge
cache of documents is increasingly about: a mighty effort pretending the
government is engaged with tomorrow when it’s really only interested in your
vote, today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The sheer purported precision of the
documents reveals their limited inadequacy. Instead of attempting to discern
the underlying tune to which the economy is dancing, the numbers exclusively
focus on the cacophony of noise that surrounds us and refuses to draw any
deductions about the future. The danger is the longer we remain mired in the
present, searching for answers for today’s issues, the more severe the mess
will be tomorrow. The government’s decided, quite wilfully, that nothing will
stand in the way of re-election. Hockey’s ignoring the future, acting like a
little boy who’s stuck his fingers in his ears to whistle, la-la-la. How do we
know? Look at what's already happening around us.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The economic problem we’re facing today is
just the beginning of tomorrow's great disruption. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Michael Osborne, an Aussie researcher at
Oxford, gives a fascinating talk that begins with the manufacturing revolution
that displaced the artisans and skilled craft-workers to boost industry in the
cities from the 18th century onwards. This created the modern industrial world
we’re so familiar with. Today everyone knows it’s computers that are changing
everything. But Osborne designs intelligent algorithms (and as dedicated
readers of this column are well aware I don’t have a clue what this means, but
it sounds clever so I thought I’d better put it in) and he’s used these to
dissect the detail of what this revolution means in practice. It seems nothing
turns out quite the way you’d expect (unless, of course, you happen to design
intelligent algorithms). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Everyone, for example, loves the idea of
Google’s self-driving cars. Wouldn’t it be good to be able to pop Samantha off
to netball without leaving the bar, sorry, coffee shop? Eventually that may
happen because Google executives will be cashed up enough to pay for their cars.
But what about the rest of us? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Osborne gives the example of a
mine-worker, one of those people who drives the behemoths that shift ore from
the tunnel shaft to the conveyer belt to load the ships. Currently these
fly-in, fly-out workers earn $180,000 plus accommodation plus transport plus
Qantas club membership plus, and this is the real kicker, the ability to claim a
hi-vis vest as a tax deduction. Replacing such workers with computer programs
is a no brainer, even for Gina Rinehart. These are the first jobs that will go
(replaced, presumably, by Google truck), but there are many more, at either of
the spectrum. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Up until now, technology has more or less
exclusively replaced routine work. Go to a supermarket, scan your items, and
Coles or Woolies have successfully outsourced the labour cost to you, the
consumer. The new trend Osborne’s detecting is for work that’s considered
non-routine - such as writing brilliant newspaper columns (gulp) - to be
replaced by technology as well. A few, highly specialised jobs that require
dexterity (such as brain surgery) will continue to be preformed by people for
the foreseeable future. Otherwise the only limitation to replacing people with
machines will be the cost. In many cases, such as work of low value drudgery,
such as cleaning, it will continue to be cheaper to get people to do the task.
So dentists and gym instructors will keep their jobs; but there’s the
possibility pilots and sales staff will be replaced. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">So think of what this means for finance,
one of the industries that’s supposed to anchor our future. Forget it. A
computer can process options pricing discrepancies far more effectively and
efficiently than a human. Such jobs will just disappear. Think of tax
accountants and superannuation advice, another enormous industry we’ve always
assumed will be around. They don’t do anything a computer program can’t do.
There are already programs around to compose news stories. I suspect the only
reason we still have journalists is that we’re so cheap to hire it’s not worthwhile
replacing us. Yet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The message is that although we may think
we’ve already been through the big disruption from computerisation, we haven’t.
The real challenges are yet to come. What will happen to our society when all
these jobs simply vanish? Unemployment will surge. The current gap between
those with money and those without will become an unbridgeable chasm. Not
everyone can become either a surgeon or a fashion designer, two of the jobs
Osborne says will be resistant to computerisation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Last weeks budget assumed confidently that
the economy will recover. It won’t. It will change. Dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-30293480880783423912015-05-12T19:56:00.001+10:002015-05-12T19:56:18.336+10:00ANOTHER TAKE ON THE BRITISH ELECTIONWhen one is never enough.<br />
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This column, written first, appeared today in the Canberra Times . . .<br />
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<b>A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE ‘OFF THE RICHTER SCALE . . .’</b></div>
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Less than two minutes after polling stations closed across the UK, excitement turned to confusion. For months opinion samples insisted the parties were running neck-and-neck; now, suddenly, an extensive exit poll taken as voters left the ballot booths insisted the conservatives would cruise to victory. </div>
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A sudden buzz surged around the Cambridge Union as everyone spoke at the same time. “It’s not right - it can’t be”, one Labourite insisted. Startled, uncomprehending eyes blinked - the media got it wrong again. “Look”, insisted one emphatic woman who’d been busy handing out leaflets all day. “I’m absolutely certain we’ve taken <i>this</i> seat off the Lib-Dems (the Liberal-Democrats, the party governing in coalition with the Conservatives). The country wants change!” She repeated herself, a little less sure now, but still desperate to will the poll away. “It demands change.”</div>
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A couple of hours later, as the champagne fell flat in its glass, it had became quite evident that even if the country needed change, it certainly wasn’t getting it. Instead of continuing to lead a minority government, Prime Minister David Cameron would rule in his own right. Labor had been eviscerated. By the early hours of the morning a subdued Ed Miliband appeared on television screens to claim his own seat. He was silent about the party’s prospects, even though just hours earlier he’d been preparing for a victory spin around Hyde Park while driving to Buckingham Palace. His speech sounded empty; a dirge rather than a trumpet’s He knew what was coming. triumphant blast. Within hours he’d resign the leadership of a shrunken party. The Lib-Dems, Cameron’s erstwhile partners, had also been routed - utterly. A political earthquake had ripped across the land. </div>
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So what happened? Two facts, and one prediction. </div>
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First, evidence. The Scottish National Party swept all but four of the seats north of the border. Labour’s Glasgow East fell with a swing of 39.3 percent. A twenty-year old woman (studying politics at university) defeated the shadow foreign secretary, becoming Britain’s youngest MP since 1667. But the revolt against the options served up by the main parties didn’t stop at the Tweed. In England, although UK Independence Party Nigel Farage lost his own seat and the party will struggle to secure two MP’s in Westminster, even though it did win almost four million votes (12.6 percent of the total vote). Compare that to the SNP’s 56 seats (out of 49 in Scotland) for 4.7 percent of ballots. In constituency after constituency UKIP are now the third, even second biggest party. Plaid Cymru in Wales only picked up three seats, but Northern Ireland remains seemingly locked forever in local, regional identities: it hasn’t adopted broader UK ones. The local is the new (political) reality. </div>
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The promised benefits of trickle-down economics aren’t there. Inequality is growing dramatically, and with it the insistence that somehow globalisation has sets this in stone. “You must accept this”, runs the refrain. Well voters, people, won’t. They know there are choices out there and if the main parties won’t offer them they’ll vote for someone who will. Someone local; someone ‘connected’. A party that’s prepared to listen to their seething anger at the way things are going and their feelings of disenfranchisement. People want more than just another colour television; they want to be listened to. Labour’s pathetic offerings didn't match their aspirations, so they voted instead for parties that possess imagination, even if the way forward remains murky and uncertain. Now the protesters are finally been heard. Identity is everything.</div>
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The second lesson? Voters despised Labour’s attempt at a small target strategy and its defence of the Blair/Brown government thrown out so enthusiastically just five years ago. At a delightful dinner party I’d bought up Blair's name between the remove and the roast. The hostess, Lady X (a good, solid, ideologically left-of-centre person) was horrified. Out of nowhere she quickly conjured up a new topic for conversation . . . the weather. It was as if I'd attempted to place excrement on the table.</div>
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The opposition failed to account for the squandered opportunities and mistakes that surrounded its last time in office. Labour didn't so much offer the electorate a narrative as a promise that everything would be just the same only somehow better; a story that was reassuring instead of being true. Labour, however, wasn't the real loser despite its worst result since the late-80’s. The Lib-Dems had their worst result since the early-80’s as blood gushed from the party that had seemed to promise a "nicer, better" way could be found. Nothing could staunch the haemorrhaging. The party lost 46 seats watching itself dissolve into a small, irrelevant puddle.</div>
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John Howard’s former advisor Lynton Crosby was derided as nothing more than a Svengali as he pushed the conservative cause, yet his messages were heard. They ‘bit’. That’s because they engaged with the real concerns of real people. Perhaps these prescriptions way aren’t best; perhaps many people are being left behind and perhaps they do sow division. But at their core they obviously distill an internal truth that resonates in the electorate.</div>
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The economy has surged over the past two years and so it's easy to dismiss the result as nothing more than a reward for economic growth. That would be wrong, and this is the listen, or prediction, for Labor in Australia. The benefits aren't being shared out equally and the concept of community is falling apart as people strive to make more money at the expense of others, however there’s not much sympathy around for those who are missing out. Welfare will be slashed, yes, but that money will be channelled into health. Apprenticeships will be increased and there's money for business start-ups. Housing commission tenants will be able to buy their homes. The policies are simplistic but the underlying principle, reward for work, is appealing. It's a policy that will leave the Devil to take the hind-most, but if you're out in front that doesn't matter. </div>
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Labour didn't offer a plausible alternative. The result wasn't pretty.</div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-27873768526785992652015-05-11T17:43:00.002+10:002015-05-11T17:43:47.485+10:00BRITAINThere's an inevitable tendency to regard elections as immutable; a "decision of the people's will"; something that will "change everything".<br />
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Maybe that's true.<br />
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<i>Outside No 10 for another 5 years</i></div>
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<i>Courtesy The Telegraph</i></div>
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This piece for the Strategist considered the two significant ways in which the UK has changed . . .<br />
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">A NEW BRITAIN<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Every now and then a political earthquake
shakes the land; a seismic event that completely alters the frame of reference
for years to come. Last week’s victory by British Conservative leader David
Cameron is one such occasion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Before the vote nobody, not even the most
dyed-in-the-wool Tory, had dared hope for such a result. Opinion polls had
shown the government and opposition level pegging for weeks. Political pundits
were predicting either a hung parliament or narrow majority for either side.
And then, minutes after the last vote was cast, an exit poll was released. Taken
as voters were leaving the ballot-booths it insisted a huge, sudden switch back
to the conservatives would sweep the party to victory. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Conservatives topped up their champagne.
Labour supporters grimly gritted their teeth. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Opposition leader Ed Miliband’s campaign
team closeted themselves in his house – the one (as TV viewers were reminded)
“without a second kitchen”. The comment referred to an earlier photo spread: the
opposition leader had been shown relaxing with his wife in an immaculate and
sparkling kitchen. It was, in fact, a bit too spotless. It turned out the room
was a faux-kitchen, constructed to look good and present an image of
authenticity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Voters had been amazed. Labour attempted
to dismiss the event as an example of the challenger’s quirkiness – after all,
he’d been a political nerd since childhood. But questions lingered. This seemed
to be yet another indication the opposition leader wasn’t quite ‘normal’. The
challenger didn’t seem to speak the voter’s language. On Thursday it turned out
voters had decided he, too, was a pseud, an impersonation and failed to warm to
him. Now the party’s been consigned to wander in the wilderness for another
five years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">What does this mean? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Half a decade is a long time. When the
next election takes place the Conservatives will have ruled the country for ten
years: long enough to alter the very fabric of society. Place the triumph in
context. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">In the ’80’s and ’90’s, Margaret Thatcher
killed off the welfare state. When Tony Blair resurrected Labour he did so by
insisting his party would govern from the centre. Although some of Thatcher’s
most egregious reforms were rolled back, most weren’t. When Gordon Brown
finally wrenched office from his erstwhile leader only to inherit the financial
crisis. He floundered helplessly until the voters dispatched him in 2010. Since
then Cameron presided over a stable government in coalition with the Liberal
Democrats. Voters decided they liked him. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">At this election they didn’t just speak;
they shouted. Emphatically. The green fields of England have turned
conservative blue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Unanimity hasn’t spread across the land
although the Tories now have a decisive majority and will be able to implement
their agenda.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two other, equally
striking, clear trends have become apparent. These can be summarised in two
words: identity and polarisation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Most obvious is the demand for local
autonomy. Scottish voters’ rejected Westminster and the Union. There are 650
seats in the UK Parliament and the Scottish National Party now holds 56 of the 60
north of the River Tweed, most taken from Labour. The only question is how much
devolution will take place. Nevertheless, (and this caveat is critical) it’s
the Conservatives who will frame the negotiations for a new constitutional
arrangement. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Yet the Scottish question will remain an
even worse lingering sore for Labour. Those demanding independence wrested most
of their gains not from the Tories, but the opposition. If Labour is to remain
viable it will need to discover a way to allow its supporters to retain
multiple identities: voters are no longer prepared to subsume themselves within
a single party ‘brand’. They want choice. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The Scots achieved their result with
concerted local campaigning. In England, the United Kingdom Independence Party,
UKIP (which deplores London’s close relationship with Brussels and the European
Union) may have only won two seats, yet it received a huge swing. In many
electorates it’s become the second largest party. Northern Ireland and Wales
will also send their own representatives to Westminster. The time has arrived
for a new model of federation for the nations. Politicians will need to
discover a new way of engaging with this emerging local identity; a new
vocabulary that can accommodate this desire for autonomy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Most seriously this has implications for
Europe. Cameron is pledged to a referendum on remaining in the EU. This threatens
to paralyse the new government as an international player. Westminster will
restrict the role it plays on the global stage for internal domestic political
purposes. Other nations will emerge to occupy this space as Britain withdraws. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The second critical issue to emerge from
the election is ideological. Under Cameron the conservative project will now
take on as radical an edge as the one it developed under Thatcher. Welfare is
to be slashed; workers rewarded. The wealthy will continue getting richer. The
past term of government saw education spending slashed by a third - the coming
years will witness an even greater push towards ripping apart the welfare
state, one which the opposition will be powerless to oppose. Paul Keating said
when you change the government you change the country. The UK’s done that in
spades.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">What for the Conservatives means greater
emphasis on the individual for Labour is the decline of the community. A new
ideological battle is about to be joined; the only question is how far Cameron
will push for change. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-45254163391644437472015-05-05T06:00:00.001+10:002015-05-05T06:00:53.947+10:00REDEFINING REASONS FOR ACTING<div style="text-align: justify;">
I'd been tempted to headline this yarn as "split over ISIL", or "Andrews and Abbott disagree about why we're in Iraq". </div>
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Unfortunately, although possibly justified neither of these assertions are quite true. </div>
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<i>Defence Minister Kevin Andrews at the RUSI</i></div>
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When we went into Iraq Tony Abbott insisted Daesh was a "death cult".</div>
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The key point is that Andrews specifically rejected this as a reason to deploy forces. </div>
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He drew a more logical picture of why we're involved, by distinguishing between nation-states (which, implicitly, one can deal with) and other forces (operating outside the Westphalian system), as this column for the Canberra Times details . . . </div>
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<b>A INTELLECTUAL ARGUMENT FROM ANDREWS, NOT NECESSARILY TUNED TO ABBOTT'S SONG</b></div>
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From one perspective it's very difficult to see any logic in our government's engagement in the Middle East. In Iraq we're sending troops to support the Shia-dominated, Iranian-backed government that's fighting the (originally Saudi-financed) Sunni adherents of Da’esh, or ISIL. But in Yemen we're supporting the Saudi’s against the Iraqi backed Houthi rebels, even though they are also at war with al Qaeda. What gives? </div>
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Perhaps unsurprisingly, former intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie believes the government is "flirting with evil”. He described a proposal to share intelligence with Tehran as “complete and utter madness”. The Independent MP suggests that even though we share a common enemy in Da’esh any information coming from Iran would not only be worthless but also may have been obtained through torture. And, just in case anyone might misunderstand how Wilkie feels, he's branded the regime as “one of the most ruthless and untrustworthy in the world". It's a pretty unequivocal condemnation.</div>
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So is the government simply playing at real-politick by supporting one group here and another there? Perhaps surprisingly, however, there is both a logical and consistent thread in the way the government has chosen to approach these conflicts. In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute at Whitehall in London, Defence Minister Kevin Andrews chose to emphasise the huge challenge that trans-national groups like Da’esh are presenting to the nation-states of the region.</div>
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Until 100 years ago the Ottoman empire ruled most of the countries where today’s internecine wars are occurring. A relatively loose rule (from the Caliphate in Istanbul) provided just enough glue to bind the different ethnicities and religious creeds together in relative harmony. Then, in the wake of the First World War, everything fell apart. Victorious British and French officials drew pens across the maps of the middle-east, slashing through customary boundaries as they shared out the spoils of war to create new countries without any regard to either ethnic or demographic realities on the ground. The fragile world they created has taken a century to fall apart, however now it has in the most terrifying and tragic way possible. </div>
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That’s why what’s happening is not some kind of ‘clash of civilisations’. Although it’s been easy to conflate the actions and atrocities of Da’esh with their claims to religious authority, the reality is the insurgency is best viewed as a simple challenge to the legitimacy of the nation-state. Although the government is still not openly voicing this explanation as a way of squaring the otherwise inexplicable circle above, it certainly makes sense of Canberra’s actions. </div>
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In his London speech Andrews made the point that Da’esh, “although driven principally by an extreme Islamist ideology, also has a defined governance structure that is intent on bringing about a war of civilisations and overturning the existing global order.” This critique reveals one of the primary motivations behind the government’s actions. It is not so much viewing the conflict our troops are engaged in in Iraq as Sunni versus Shia - instead it’s an insurgency of non-state actors fighting (a legitimate) government. </div>
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This eliminates the religious element. Andrews went on to say nothing should “alter the appreciation that those fighting for Da’esh are still motivated by their own sense of religious duty, even if a puritanical and extremist one”. Tony Abbott referred to the insurgents as a “death cult”. Surprisingly, Andrews is far more nuanced. He specifically ruled out characterising them “as a bunch of blood-thirsty lunatics, fixated on shocking the world with their beheadings, crucifixions and glory in death”. Then he made the critical point. “Doing so can only cause us to underestimate their wider political ambitions.” </div>
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The point is that Da’esh represents a fundamental challenge to the nation state system that we’ve used to keep the world running since the treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Extremists flourish in the absence of the rule of law, or what Andrews calls “ungoverned space”. His instinctive response is to help “re-establish government authority and effectiveness”. This makes sense, although it’s a very different way of envisaging the world to Wilkie’s. </div>
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Whereas the independent MP been forthright in his willingness to rule out any deal with Tehran, Andrews is indicating that it's better to deal with someone, anyone, rather than nobody. And he's probably right. The Shia-dominated government in Baghdad spent years provoking the Sunnis in the north of Iraq by ignoring the area and fuelling the anger that allowed the insurgency to develop as it has. Nevertheless the point this government is making is that the red lines on the map actually mean something. And it's prepared to underline this point by, if necessary, putting Australian lives on the line to emphasise this commitment to the “rules-based order” that underlies international diplomacy. </div>
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This is also provides an insight into the current government's tensions with China. Beijing has begun pushing the boundaries as its vessels have clashed recently with ships from Japan and Vietnam in the China Seas. The superpower is manifestly dissatisfied with the way international borders have been drawn in this area. Unfortunately finding a way of encouraging China to play by the rules won’d be as easy as sending a couple of hundred troops to destroy Da’esh. </div>
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<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-89688719565846427762015-04-19T21:00:00.004+10:002015-04-19T21:00:34.969+10:00The Name Of the Rose . . . There's a brilliant short passage at the beginning (p15) of Umberto Eco's book, the Name of the Rose, where the ageing Benedictine narrator puts down his feelings about the declining state of the world:<br />
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<i><b>"the young no longer want to study anything, learning is in decline, the whole world walks on its head, blind men lead others equally blind and cause them to plunge into the abyss, birds leave the nest before they can fly, the jackass plays the lyre, oxen dance. Mary no longer loves the contemplative life and Martha no longer loves the active life, Leah is sterile, Rachel has a carnal eye, Cato visits brothels, Lucretius becomes a woman. Everything is on the wrong path . . ."</b></i></div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-21537008457829823802015-03-26T06:59:00.001+11:002015-03-26T06:59:59.887+11:00<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; min-height: 13px; text-align: justify;">
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I've been terrible in not keeping the blog up-to-date, I'm afraid. </div>
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This is Tuesday's piece for the Canberra Times. </div>
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This is about Gallipoli - or today. </div>
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Or this column is about today - and the past . . . </div>
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<b>ANOTHER DEBACLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST</b></div>
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We like to think the Gallipoli campaign began before the sun rose on the morning of April 25, as the hobnailed boots of the first Anzacs leapt off the wooden lighters and splashed into the water, before running ashore. After all, that's the moment many use to define the nation – a supposed moment of birth. Yet the campaign to force the Dardanelles (in which Australia actually played merely a peripheral role) really began a century ago last week, when a flotilla of Allied battleships attempted to storm through the Strait and force their way to Istanbul.</div>
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That assault had become a debacle. The French battleship Bouvet hit a mine, peeled over, and capsized with 600 crew trapped inside. Two British capital ships followed her to the bottom; another was badly damaged. The minesweepers fled. Shocked and dazed by losses, Admiral John de Robeck ordered retreat. This was the moment the myth began. </div>
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Even though the score was three-nil a young Commodore, Roger Keyes, remained undaunted. Without any proof he asserted the Turkish guns were about to run out of ammunition. They weren’t, but it was this dull glimmer that Winston Churchill later used to ignite his suggestion the assault almost worked. He blew it into a fierce flame, suggesting ”the terrible <b><i>ifs</i></b> accumulate". <b><i>If only</i></b>, he said, the ships had tried one more time. <b><i>If only</i></b>, he later suggested, the Anzacs and British had landed on different beaches. <b><i>If only</i></b>, he imagined, things had gone differently, the Allies might have won, knocked Turkey out of the war, saved Russia, and changed the course of world history. </div>
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Such dreamings are dangerous. The consequences are still playing out today. </div>
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Last week an excellent conference in Canberra again punctured Churchill’s illusion. Take the considered words of two the worlds foremost experts on military aspects of the First World War. First Sir Hew Strachan, Chiehele Professor at Oxford, who helped the audience understand the development of the idea. It had seemed worthwhile making an effort to knock Turkey out of the war and particularly from the perspective of early 1915 the strategic opportunities were clear. The problems began when the aspirational ideas were translated into operational plans. Concepts turned into concrete but the commanders of the day lacked the flexibility to implement the original concept. </div>
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Flinders’ Professor Robin Prior led a forum on the landing which led inexorably to an ineluctable conclusion: the assault could never have succeeded. There were a plethora of reasons, of course, and it’s the little ones that we tend to focus on, because those are the easiest to understand. But the key, overarching cause of the defeat seems to have been the cultural and doctrinal underpinning of the operations. </div>
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The Royal Navy had never really believed in the attempt to break through the Dardanelles. It was Churchill's implacable desire that forced the issue. Yet once they’d been given the mission the commanders kept pushing, reinforcing failure again and again instead of admitting defeat. The abortive naval attempt to force the straits were followed by landings, which were followed by more landings and the August offensive, until finally the collapse of any possibility of success had become apparent to everybody, thousands of lives later. The problem is that the reasons underlying defeat were quickly rewritten. The compiler of the British Official History was, in fact, an officer heavily implicated in the catastrophe and he understandably wasn’t capable of seeing how embedded cultural issues had played such a significant part. Which brings us to the present. </div>
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Those arbitrarily drafting the boundary lines of new countries (like Syria and Iraq) replacing the Ottoman Empire had no understanding of the sort of ethnic and religious divides seething under their nice new borders that cut across the land. They were trapped in the same cultural mindset that had sent a generation to die on the barbed wire of no-mans land. They believed they’d won and they could shape the world. Unfortunately, they still do. </div>
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Back in 1915, those responsible for crafting strategy did so without any engagement with those who had to implement it on the ground. Churchill may have failed to heed the warnings of his commanders, yet once they were given the task they were determined to carry it out without relating it to the broader strategic objectives. They’d became trapped, attempting to successfully complete their mission even when it no longer made any sense. </div>
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Today Tony Abbott has thrown our forces into another battle where their contribution will be irrelevant in determining the outcome.</div>
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Our troops in Iraq are not fighting against Daesh, the Islamic State. They serve as little more than a political prop, providing a physical representation of Abbott’s insistence that we are supporting Baghdad. But that's it. A couple of weeks ago Iraq turned to Iran for assistance as it began an offensive to drive the rebels from Tikrit. Iranian soldiers and the notorious, ruthless Shiite militia groups were deployed to fight the battle. After initial success this has now bogged down, but our forces have refused to engage. The Canberra Times understands a request for air support has been turned down by the coalition command in the Gulf. Our soldiers are also being kept away from the attack, although Baghdad apparently doesn’t want them involved. It’s a mess. </div>
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And, just as in World War One, none of the players have any desire to clear things up. The military aren’t facilitating any requests for media embeds. It’s not difficult to suspect that’s because the politicians don’t want you to know what’s going on, just as they didn’t in 1915. And that’s why, despite the huge advances in technology, you won’t have heard anything more from our soldiers than they heard from Gallipoli back in 1915. </div>
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In the meantime the fighting goes on. </div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-48091142637800228232015-02-14T16:06:00.005+11:002015-02-14T16:07:41.528+11:00SUBMARINES<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0.8em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
It's possible to justify choosing any of the new submarine bids. </div>
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The Swedish/Australian one? We did that last time and it worked. </div>
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The French? Has the potential to go nuclear. </div>
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The German? Worth pursuing. </div>
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The Japanese? Possibly, but not if it locks us into an alliance with Tokyo; will be built in Japan; and if the Japanese won't explain any of the advantages publicly. </div>
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<i>How many hulls in this picture?</i></div>
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We'd be better off without one, as I suggest in this piece for the Canberra Times . . .</div>
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<b><b style="font-size: 1.2em;">DUD-MARINE WARS</b></b></div>
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"You're assuming, of course, that the Japanese submarine actually <b><i>is</i></b> double-hulled."</div>
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David Gould sounded exasperated. The Englishman has been working for years on our new submarine project, and this week he was giving a briefing to an <i><b>Australian Defence Magazine</b> </i>conference in Canberra. The talk sounded, to a layman, essentially the same one he had given to the Royal United Services Institute a couple of years ago, which might explain his apparent frustration. </div>
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But Gould's words seemingly revealed far more than he had intended. He clammed up immediately. It's a pity he wouldn't elaborate further. If this was an accurate, albeit unintentional, disclosure, Gould has inadvertently revealed why our government has no intention of committing to a genuine competition for the new submarine design.</div>
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That's because the Japanese are determined to keep their design secret. They won't be revealing any details of their boat. Not to anyone. And they particularly wouldn't appreciate disclosures – like the fact their submarine might be far bigger inside than anyone realises – in the open competition. It would allow the Chinese to understand much more about the capabilities of their submarines than Japan wants.</div>
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It also explains part of the reason the United States is so keen we buy Japanese. The US doesn't build conventional submarines and it doesn't have the design expertise. If, however, we buy Japan's submarine this would have the effect of bolting Australia into the new alliance the US is building to combat the growing influence of China. This is the second reason our government is determined not to allow any genuine competitive tender process for the submarine. </div>
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Japan's submarines don't use American sensors or torpedoes – but ours would. Our submariners are good and if they are operating the same vessel as the Japanese fleet it would make servicing our submarines in the North Pacific possible.</div>
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The US is keen to tie all three countries into an extremely tight alliance. It doesn't want a shard of light to separate our countries. Getting Australia to use a secret Japanese weapons system would provide extra ballast in the relationship.</div>
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Direct links between Japan and Australia would serve its purpose nicely. This would become merely another way of securely reinforcing the alliance. This geo-strategic nexus is a vital part of the submarine strategy. It isn't a decision about either getting the best boat for our navy or work for South Australians - there are far bigger forces in play.</div>
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So forget Senator Sean Edwards' insistence that South Australia is going to get a look in when it comes to building the boat. That verbal assurance isn't worth anything. He has been played for a sucker by his leader.</div>
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If you don't believe that, go back to what Gould told this week's conference. He split the construction process into three parts: design, build and "sustainment".</div>
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This separation is artificial. Gould insisted on the need for intimate feedback between each phase, which means it doesn't make sense to split the process unless the eventual plan is to go with Japanese construction.</div>
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That explains why everyone from Defence and Defence Materiel Organisation has been racking up frequent flyer points jetting off to Tokyo. Adelaide will be left with the scraps.</div>
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This, it seems, is what Tony Abbott has his heart set on, because that's the only way of explaining why no details have been released into the public arena to assist informed decision making. </div>
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Rivals are being deliberately ignored, even though they are making every effort to provide information. A German team that visited last week didn't get to meet key people. The French have opened an office here but it seems no one is interested in what they have to offer. And the Swedish/Australian bid?</div>
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The Collins class had to be designed from the ground up. Work started on the boats in less than two years and now it's an excellent submarine, which incorporates a lot of valuable lessons. Yet the government appears determined to destroy South Australia's last vestige of manufacturing industry by buying a Japanese boat, made in Japan.</div>
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Vital decisions about new submarines have been waiting for years. Unfortunately, our paralysed political process has been unable to put Australian interests first. This is increasing the pressure to buy from overseas. The problem is that Japan has never exported a weapons system like this before and diving in at the deep end might not be the best way to start.</div>
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It's worth going back and considering what the objective of the submarine is. Incredible developments in the precision and range of land-based missiles means these can effectively perform many of the roles now of submarines.</div>
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They can, for example, sink ships and constrict sea lanes far more efficiently than picket-lines of boats strung out across the ocean.</div>
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Japan makes these missiles, and they can be obtained far more cheaply than building submarines. This is exactly the sort of weapons system that it makes sense to acquire – but unfortunately it doesn't have an institutional supporter. The navy, understandably, wants boats.</div>
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The only loser from the saga is the taxpayer. And, of course, the South Australian voter. Although they may remember who wrote them off when it comes time for the next election. </div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-27837748409612696412015-02-10T07:23:00.001+11:002015-02-10T07:23:35.970+11:00NOW LONG CAN HE HOLD ON?I can examine my heart and say I wish Tony Abbott no harm.<br />
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But I don't think that he'll be prime minister come July.<br />
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<i>There's no recovery once you're on the ropes</i></div>
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The ineluctable drumbeat of history tells us once authority is lost it can never be recovered.<br />
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I laid out the prognosis in this piece for the Canberra Times . . .<br />
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<b>CAN AN ABBOTT CHANGE HIS HABIT</b></div>
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It wasn’t a huge hurdle – a vote not to have a vote. This time Tony Abbott’s passed, although you wouldn't want to put money on him being in the job at the end of the year. Yesterday's devastating vote didn't hinge on either personality, policy nor procedure, however Abbott will have to change all three if he wants to hang on. And if you want to know how all this will turn out, just consider that more than a third of his party don't want to join the PM on this particular mystery tour. The point is rather that no previous incumbent of this office has ever been forced to face such a test so soon after winning election.</div>
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Recovering from such a massive vote of no confidence amongst your colleagues is a Sisyphean task. Unlike John Gorton and Kevin Rudd, Abbott’s survived his first challenge, but this is not over. Since the war, no PM who’s faced a challenge has ever led their party to the next election. Abbott went into yesterday’s spill as the only candidate – and yet even with that advantage he couldn't win decisively. Next time he’ll face an opponent and it won't be so simple.</div>
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Yesterday was reminiscent of the moment when Julia Gillard called on her party for a vote of confidence. She received that endorsement, however it didn't stop the party demolishing her later, as the election approached. It also took a couple of challenges before Bob Hawke was removed. The only PM’s in the past 50 years who haven’t been replaced (Gough Whitlam, Malcolm Fraser, Paul Keating and John Howard) have all, eventually, let their parties to political disaster. It appears Abbott isn’t the one who will break the cycle. </div>
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As he struggled to hang on Abbott engaged in creativity. He created a myth that the PM is somehow ‘elected by the people,' a somewhat surprising move for a defender of the Westminster parliamentary system. Perhaps he’d forgotten how strongly he supported the current constitution. Over the past week, however, Abbott has been enthusiastically rewriting both history and constitutional law, desperately striving for any advantage. He brought the meeting forward by 24 hours to deny his opponents the chance to make a case for change. He claimed cabinet solidarity required everyone to vote against a challenge or resign. He even seemingly forgot that he’d been a moving force in the challenge that destroyed Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. That was, he insisted, in opposition and therefore it didn't count. He struggled desperately, clinging to anything and everything that would give his fading cause succour. </div>
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Now he's won and he's promised to change; to listen; to consult. So can he turn things round? </div>
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Experience suggests not. That vital ingredient of political success – magic – has already departed from this government. It sped away barely two months after the government had been elected, when Labor vaulted to a lead in the polls that it's never, subsequently, lost. That was Abbott’s fault . He's never resonated with ordinary Australians. He had nothing to fall back on. There was no reservoir of trust in the electorate that he could turn to after his policies fell apart. And that's why, despite the vote, it's difficult to see that enough could change in the next couple of months to prevent this insurgency from challenging again.</div>
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At his colleagues are willing to give him a chance. South Australian Senator Sean Edwards, for example, has been asking for his state’s shipyards to simply get an opportunity to tender for the new submarine contract. That's a very important point to understand. Edwards wasn't looking for any sort of special deal, just a fair chance of winning the work. Early last week he spoke to Abbott, but still he didn't see any action. Finally, on Saturday, he was quoted in the papers again. He reiterated he only desired a fair playing field. He just didn't want the contracts to go automatically to Japan because of an arbitrary decision that excluded Australian business (and his state) from the bidding process.</div>
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This time Abbott heard what was being said. He picked up the phone and spoke to Edwards again. As a result, at 9 AM the Senator’s vote was one of the 61 that re-confirmed Abbott as PM. Two hours later, at 11, Edwards was nothing out the detail of the submarine contract with Defence Minister Kevin Andrews. That's responsive.</div>
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The optimists can point to this as an example that change is possible. The government isn't finished. But a lumbering problem remains: the budget. SBS TV was the first to reveal the linkage between the timing of this challenge and the reason backbenchers are so concerned about the government's prospects. It's not simply the polls; they're worried about policy. They're not just worried that the current budget hasn't been passed; they're terrified because the same team is already hammering away at what promises to be another disaster.</div>
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This explains the timing of the challenge. The hard-heads are desperate to turn the government’s fortunes round. They don't believe that will happen unless Abbott understands the urgent need to change the people who surround him.</div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-60717057610835031322015-02-07T16:09:00.003+11:002015-02-07T16:10:41.117+11:00THE FOREIGN ISSUETony Abbott claims he should remain PM because he's strong on defence, security and foreign affairs issues.<br />
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Strong, maybe, but effective?<br />
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Personally, I don't believe so.<br />
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As this article for todays Canberra Times suggests . . .<br />
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(PS They gave it the headline)<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">DANGEROUS TIMES INSPIRE RECKLESS RHETORIC</span></b></div>
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On Monday, in the speech in which Tony Abbott began his desperate bid to retain his Prime Minister-ship, the first subject he turned to was security. "These are testing times for our country," he said, quickly cataloguing the conflict in the Ukraine; the rise of a "death cult" in the Middle East; and terrorism at home as imminent threats to our way of life. The implication was that he is best placed to deal with these challenges.</div>
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However, there's a growing consensus among analysts that instead of resolving crises, Abbott's instinctive actions are making them worse. Like an old boxer, the PM always wants to act, to actually "do something". Yet instead of diffusing conflicts this often escalates them, resulting in policy incoherence and danger.</div>
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When Cabinet's national security committee met in the wake of the shooting down of MH17, for example, Abbott's first instinct was to send a battalion of troops to defend the police investigators. He was persuaded not to: our soldiers would have needlessly provoked the Russian-backed rebels without being numerous enough to protect themselves. But Abbott's tendency to speak without thinking was about to come unstuck in a far more dangerous part of the world.</div>
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The revolting and gruesome images of barbarity coming from the Middle East touched something deep in Abbott's psyche. He again needed to act immediately and within days a military contingent was on its way to the region. Unfortunately he'd failed to check with the Iraqis first.</div>
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While the Baghdad government was happy to accept some support, its enthusiasm turned out to be highly qualified. Iraq still refuses, for example, to allow our jets to be based in the (safe) south of the country. This means pilots must fly an extra 2½ hours simply to get to the operational area and the same time returning from the mission, quite aside from the additional expense.</div>
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Abbott hadn't accepted advice that Baghdad itself was never in danger of falling to the insurgents - that's why the Iraqi's initially refused to allow our soldiers in to the country. Australia's precondition for their deployment was a "status of forces" agreement - offering legal indemnity if they accidentally killed a civilian. An understanding on this vital requirement has still not been reached and, as a result, our troops are still, incredibly, bearing diplomatic passports.<i>The Canberra Times </i>understands this is one of the key reasons they are still not forward deployed to combat Islamic State. Instead they're still in the sprawling compound around Baghdad International Airport known as Area Four. Here they simply train new recruits for the Iraqi Special Operations Forces. This is a worthy and necessary task; it's also a far cry from the original mission.</div>
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What our troops are doing is also very different from the support being provided by other countries in the international coalition and that's again attributable to Abbott's actions. Canadian special forces, for example, are engaging in firefights and have been heavily involved in the vital mission of calling in coalition airstrikes against extremists in the Kurdish region in the north of Iraq. This has enabled Peshmerga to push IS out of the small town of Kobane, on the Turkish border.</div>
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Meanwhile, in the south of the country, the commandos our troops are supposedly advising are heavily engaged in another desperate battle. The Balad district, 80 kilometres north of the capital, had been abandoned to the rebels when Iraq's 10th Brigade fled after losing just 11 soldiers. This week the UN revealed it had received reports that IS had crucified and buried children alive after capturing areas from the government. A costly battle to retake the region ensued. Videos of Iraqi Special Operations Forces' black vehicles show them spraying fire randomly as they advance. While nobody can doubt either the intensity of this fighting, its viciousness, or the experience of the ISOF, whatever skills the Australians are teaching appear to be quickly forgotten in combat. The Iraqi vehicles bunch up and their soldiers fire wildly in the air, seemingly failing to use basic fire and movement tactics to close with insurgents, which suggests that little has so far been accomplished by their deployment. </div>
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An important part of the reason our forces haven't been welcomed is also directly attributable to Abbott. Late last year, Australia (unlike Canada) joined the United States in vetoing a UN resolution censuring Israel. Diplomats insist this has exasperated Baghdad and explains in part the Iraqi government's unwillingness to embrace the assistance the PM's offering.</div>
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The third question mark that's being raised over Abbott's judgment relates directly to domestic security. Although ASIO has increased the threat level the country faces, it's understood this reflects, in part, the organisation's concern over it's inability to properly monitor what's occurring rather than increased danger. In the meantime, the PM's been intensifying divisions and highlighting risks that don't necessarily exist.</div>
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Security analysts aren't accusing Abbott of manufacturing the security challenges the country faces - but they're not convinced he's the right person to deal with them. It seems likely the Liberal party room will agree when it meets next week.</div>
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-32178386083333992892015-02-04T11:24:00.002+11:002015-02-04T11:24:51.555+11:00Candour<h3 style="border-top-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-top-style: solid; border-width: 3px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 1.4rem; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0px 0px 0.5em; padding: 0.5em 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #cd0000; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 21.219135284423828px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Norman Abjorensen </em><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 21.219135284423828px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">kicks off his latest piece for Inside Story with a great quote: </span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px;">"In his 2011 book, </span><a href="http://insidestory.org.au/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-bogans/" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(235, 173, 173); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none !important; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class</em></a><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px;">, Owen Jones describes how, in his final year at Oxford a decade ago, he heard a senior member of the party (widely believed to be David Cameron) speak with blunt candour at an informal gathering: “What you have to realise about the Conservative Party is that it is a coalition of privileged interests. Its main purpose is to defend that privilege. And the way it wins elections is by giving </span><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">just </em><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px;">enough to </span><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">just </em><span style="background-color: #f8f8f8; color: #4b4b4c; font-family: pt_serif, serif; font-size: 17.84336280822754px; line-height: 30px;">enough other people.”</span></h3>
<ul style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: white; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; line-height: 7.7160491943359375px; list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Alexander Wendt</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">40.76%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">R</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">32.73%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">4.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">James Fearon</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">24.82%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kenneth Waltz</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23.23%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Joseph Nye Jr.</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">17.32%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">7.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bruce Bueno de Mesquita</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">13.20%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">8.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Samuel Huntington</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">11.51%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">9.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Martha Finnemore</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">11.19%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">10.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Robert Jervis</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">11.09%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">11.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Stephen Walt</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">10.77%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">12.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kathryn Sikkink</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">8.76%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">13.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Peter Katzenstein</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">7.92%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">14.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Beth Simmons</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">7.18%</span></li>
<li style="border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.914351463317871px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="counters" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">15.</span><span class="texts" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">David Lake</span><span class="numbers" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.9rem; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.8em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6.76%</span></li>
</ul>
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-23550816387798707992015-02-03T05:24:00.000+11:002015-02-03T05:24:14.091+11:00ONE QUESTIONJournalists are paid to make stories. We write new ones every day.<br />
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<i>Danger -journalist at work</i></div>
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But sometimes people don't want the stuff that we serve up daily - they just want to skip to the punch-line at the end.<br />
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You instinctively 'know' what this is when you pause to think about it for a second or two. You 'know' how things will work out in the long run.<br />
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I harnessed that knowledge to write about this year in politics.<br />
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We'll hear a lot, this year, about Tony Abbott, but you know how it will end up.<br />
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Badly.<br />
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As I wrote in today's Canberra Times . . .<br />
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<b>IT’S JUST A QUESTION OF TIMING</b></div>
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Hello. Welcome to the new (political) year. Fortunately, readers of this column are intelligent. You’re interested in what’s going on and follow the detail; the in’s and out’s of the stories. Regrettably, however, that’s not the case with many Australians. They don’t care about detail; they just want to know the answer. They may as well skip to the last paragraph of this column now, because for they like to reduce the exciting and interesting events of the entire political year down to just one, very simple big question. It’s all they have time for. </div>
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<i>He made his case, but people have stopped listening</i></div>
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You don’t need me to catalogue the extent of the government’s despair. Suffice it to say that we’ve long passed the time for detail. Pull back for the big picture. </div>
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When John Howard was in office voters wondered about the opposition. After a nasty scare (“do we want a GST?”) he ensured his opponents were always the issue. In 2006, for example, it was ‘will Kim Beazley remain opposition leader?’ He was dumped. You never want the question to be about you – the answer won’t be good. The next year, for example, brought a new question. It was ‘should Howard remain PM?’ </div>
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The key point is the question had changed and so did the government. </div>
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The next year, Rudd was allowed to set his own question. It was; ‘will Australia escape recession?’ The answer was ‘yes’ and everyone was very happy. Then Rudd stuffed it. He thought he could write his own question again, but it turned out the voters had one of their own based on something he’d already promised to do. This was sorting out climate change, but answer came there none. Space emerged in the political coverage. Journalists had nothing to write about. So they began making up their own questions. That isn’t good for governments – not good at all. </div>
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Then Julia Gillard jumped the gun and began shouting, “I’m the answer!” But she was offering herself as a solution before we’d realised the problem. Then it turned out she hadn’t done her homework after all and couldn’t solve the problems of asylum seekers or climate change. Everyone was confused just at the time there should have been a clear choice. So the electorate couldn’t answer the question and we had a hung parliament. Labor, unfortunately, remained unable to come up with either good questions or plausible answers. Finally, in 2013, voters were asked if they wanted a change. </div>
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They were sick of Labor and shouted, “yes please, anyone!” That’s why Abbott became PM and now the’re having second thoughts. He got his chance to set his own exam paper last year, but the ex-Rhodes scholar failed. No budget (still!), no unity, no vision. He had a chance to reset at the end of last year, but failed again. He refused to change his Chief-of-Staff, insisting instead he’d go down with Peta Credlin (he will) and then, seemingly determined to bring on his own demise, demonstrated complete dissociation by conferring a silly accolade on “Sir Phil”. Really. </div>
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So that’s why this year’s question has nothing to do with Abbott. Oh yes, there will be interesting subsidiary problems – when will he be dumped and how – but these are, essentially, irrelevant. He’s gone. The big issue now is simply to get this over and done with so we can move onto a far more interesting idea, like: “what will Malcolm Turnbull be like in the Lodge?” </div>
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<i>Malcolm doesn't want to talk about anything as he flies back to Australia</i></div>
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There’s no guarantee, of course, it will be Turnbull because that would be the sensible solution. He is, however, the obvious candidate. He’s given utter loyalty to Abbott; Labor’s vote will collapse overnight; he’ll prove a good PM, interested in ideas; and the Liberal ‘right’ can content themselves that it’s better to actually be in government than impotent in opposition. But if he won’t challenge who are his rivals? </div>
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Julie Bishop’s work overseas has been laced with (always minor, of course) ladders and even (more seriously) the occasional tear in the fabric. Fine in foreign affairs but even she knows – in her heart of hearts – the leaders job is beyond her. Besides, it’s her weakness as deputy that allowed the baying crowd to surround Abbott. Scott Morrison may be competent, but he won’t bring one new vote to the party. His candidacy would be a recipe for division, uniting the true believers but foregoing the opportunity to make a new start. </div>
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Joe Hockey? He’s lost his chance. And the only point of an old cavalry officer like Mal Brough is to begin the charge that can unlock the pieces on the political chessboard. There’s so much more to say; so many columns to write, because everything will depend on just how Abbott goes. </div>
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Like who will become Deputy PM? The Nationals are well advised to make this a double coup. They might not like the idea of Barnaby Joyce at the helm, but it can’t be worse than the current incumbent, Warren what’s his name. </div>
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But this is all irrelevant for the people who just tune in for the one big question each year. No longer is that question; ‘will Abbott hang on?’ Voters are already looking to the future. They don’t care if he holds on for a week, a month, or even until the middle of the year. That will be very interesting to the rest of us and we’ll appreciate how the dynamic of play will shape the eventual outcome. Abbott’s lost the power to hang on but he retains the ability to shape the future and his legacy. That influence, however, is slipping away by the day. The voters know that – they understand his leaving is just a matter of time. Their question is ‘how soon can the country move on?’ </div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-64255512507208034612015-01-28T07:46:00.000+11:002015-01-28T07:46:37.742+11:00THINKING, THINKING . . . End of the holidays.<br />
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Time to sit down and start working again. How better to begin than by thinking about thinking?<br />
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>A slightly younger looking Melissa at the AIIA</i></div>
<br />
The Lander Institute kicks the new year off with its annual survey of think-tanks, and so this column begins there.<br />
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But what about other organisations? Unfortunately, the government has slashed funding for them over the past year.<br />
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As I wrote in the Canberra Times, It makes one wonder if we really are a knowledge nation . . .<br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>A BIG DAY</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The executive director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs is smiling the biggest smile you've ever seen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Melissa Conley Tyler is understandably excited as she welcomes a small crowd to the tiny, '70's office in Deakin. Scones and Danish pastries sit on a table to one side, offering the prospect of imminent refreshment and conversation. But first, the well-worn carpet is scraped as the metal legs of office chairs push to and fro. The audience sits down. Tyler, beaming, floats to the podium. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">"We are delighted," she begins, "that the Institute has been recognised as the top think tank in the region". The accolade has been bestowed by the prestigious Lauder Institute of the University of Pennsylvania. The AIIA has marched up the league table to be rated as the "top think tank in Southeast Asia and the Pacific". It has beaten 59 other (sometimes far better resourced institutes) to the title. A glance at Tyler's beaming countenance suggests that her own determined efforts are largely responsible for the remarkable achievement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Not that other Australian think tanks have been left out. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has, for example, been rated the No. 2 "think tank to watch" in the entire world. Other centres are also mentioned favourably, although that's perhaps not surprising. There are, after all, 48 categories (ranging from "best think-tank conference" to "top think tank by area of research") in which the 29 Australian organisations compete for ratings. Nevertheless, the overall impression is one of dynamism. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Tyler's aware of the arbitrary nature of such rankings. However, this is her moment and it's only fair to pause and enjoy the sight of her basking in this deserved triumph. She set herself an objective and she's achieved it. Nevertheless, if the independent think tanks are riding high, the same can't be said about the government sector. The federal budget still hasn't been passed but the savage cuts to the research sector are already being implemented. Big cuts: $111 million to the CSIRO; DSTO losing $120 million; CRC's funding cut by $80 million; ARC grants slashed by $74.9 million. But it seems no organisation is too small to escape the reaper.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Geoscience Australia's funding cut by $36 million; even ANSTO's nuclear research funding loses $27 million off the bottom line. And communications technology funding? Another $45 million will be gouged out of that from 2016. If the future of Australia is the knowledge business this seems to be rather funny way of demonstrating it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">This is, of course, part of the government's problem. As we settle down after the final holiday of the season and enthusiastically look forward to the prospect of returning to work, it's understandable that everyone is looking ahead and attempting to discern what the new year will bring. And that's the problem for Tony Abbott.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He may have stopped the boats and axed the tax but this represented simply getting rid of Labor's self-created problems. There's nothing "new". The forward agenda appears to be all about returning us to the past. Monday's honours list included one cringeworthy addition to the bunyip aristocracy of knights and dames, nevertheless it appears all our former PM's including most crucially John Howard have decided to refuse Abbott's re-minted title.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The problem with the titles originates from the same place as the lack of women in cabinet and on the honours list and the slashing of funding for research. There's no view of the future and the very idea of change is regarded as a threat. The difficulty is that the processes of the past won't represent the solutions to the future. Voters instinctively understand this. They want a vision. The difficulty for politicians is that the old answers no longer resonate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">A recent article by Tim Colebatch in <i>Inside Story </i>examined a fundamental problem with our current economic assumptions. Immigration has always been seen as a boon. Immigration brought people with skills who developed the country. Today that equation no longer works. In the past three years the working population has grown by more than a million people. Unfortunately only 385,000 jobs have been added in the same time. Even when (if) the economy gets going again it will take years to suck up those who've been shovelled onto the unemployment heap at a critical point in their development, and there can be no guarantee some will ever find their way to work. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Solving such problems will require new ways of thinking. The earlier fundamentals have changed and this is rendering irrelevant the old answers that are confidently trotted out by people who aren't prepared to engage with the new world. This points to the importance of encouraging and cherishing new ideas instead of simply regurgitating the old ones, time and time again. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The Lauder Institute has been continually refining and adding to its ranking of think tanks. That's good. Some years ago, for example, it added a ranking for struggling think tanks, or those with budgets of less than $US5 million ($6.3 million). Other assessments now include "new knowledge, innovative policy proposals or alternative ideas on policy", because it's exactly these sorts of out-of-the-box suggestions that appear to offer viable methods of engaging with the future. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The idea that Australia is somehow still a "knowledge nation" remains deeply embedded in our psyche. The truth is we're not. The efforts of think tanks will be vital if we want to turn that around, but so will the efforts of government. Unfortunately it's difficult to feel sanguine that either side of politics will be prepared to commit. </span></div>
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<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-11398685734776555132015-01-20T12:16:00.000+11:002015-01-28T07:47:15.768+11:00JE NE SUIS PAS CHARLIE<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Very often there are no easy answers, but perhaps the worst response of all is a hashtag "like". </div>
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I believe in free speech, but I don't believe in insulting people intentionally. </div>
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This was an attempt to explain my feelings in the Canberra Times . . . </div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">NUANCE & FUNDAMENTALISM<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Je ne suis pas Charlie</i>. I am not Charlie (Hebdo). Deliberately setting
out to cause offence doesn’t appear a particularly intelligent response to the
many profound problems of the world. But speaking freely is fundamental. I’ve
(personally) provoked enough people to understand that what one person believes
is acceptable will go beyond the pale for another. That’s why nothing can
excuse the appalling, unforgivable and despicable attack in Paris. It must be
condemned. Utterly. Nevertheless there is a difference between open discussion
and yelling abuse; between intelligent argument and rude insult. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Je ne suis pas un bigot</i>. Although Attorney General George Brandis
may believe everyone has the right to be a bigot, I don’t. Hate speech doesn’t
open conversations; it closes them down. Nobody possesses the untrammelled
right to force those particular opinions down others throats, insult, or assert
untruths. Wandering into this area is like turning over old mossy stones: all
sorts of vicious animals shelter underneath, waiting to escape and spread their
poison. Freedom of expression is vital and important. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Discussion is about opening up
new possibilities. Nobody is more boring than the old acquaintance holding
completely decided positions on every question. Fundamentalism is about much
more than religion. I fully believe in climate change, for example, but it’s
obvious Tim Flannery’s baldly simplistic model – hot and dry everywhere – is
incorrect. We need to engage with the troublesome and problematic. Anyone who
tells you they have the answer to every issue will have gaping wholes in the
centre of their solutions. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Take something simple, such as
the French government’s decreed minute of silence to observe the massacre.
Understandable. But can’t you understand the students – often Muslim – at more
than 70 schools throughout the country who made noise during this period? They were
doing just what <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Charlie Hebdo</i></b> did: resisting authority and refusing to conform.
They didn’t feign sympathy for those who had insulted their beliefs. If the
magazine could lawfully make fun of their religion why couldn’t they, equally legitimately
(without condoning the killings) object to being forced into silence? That’s
the meaning of ‘freedom’. </div>
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Freedom of expression is about
choosing where we create the boundaries, and that’s why it will remain
contested territory. It’s legally permissible in France to say things that
would be prohibited here (and vice versa). <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Charlie Hebdo</i></b> was open with its
ridicule. A court case found, for example, the magazine could describe Pope John
Paul II as “un pape de merde” (a pope of shit), although such vitriol was only
permitted as long as it was directed at a religion (our blasphemy, or hate
speech) rather than towards individuals (defaming particular Roman Catholics). </div>
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None of this mattered when
society was relatively homogeneous. Everyone ‘knew’ what was acceptable and
what transgressed the boundaries. Today, however, people with very different
attitudes and beliefs live alongside one another. It’s quite understandable
that some want to curb what others say. The problem is that too often people
take refuge in the knee-jerk, unthinking response. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Unfortunately ‘liking’ posts, or ‘re-tweeting’
them risks endorsing slabs of thought rather than conveying nuances that you
may disagree with. No thinking person can possibly endorse someone else’s
entire manifesto and all too often such responses simply reinforce stereotypes.
Instead of illuminating our thinking with different perspectives they dull it
with formulaic responses of resounding mediocrity, or worse. What should be
made, for example, of those subscribing to the hashtag, “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Je suis Kouachi</i>”, the name of the murdering brothers? Should they
be arrested, or is their free speech protected? </div>
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<br /></div>
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The past 50 years have witnessed an
extraordinary economic expansion. The benefits of this massive development have,
until now, been concentrated in relatively few economies. That’s changing. It
can no longer be taken for granted that the privileged assumptions of the West
represent universal values. Concurrently growth is slowing, leading to more and
more people rejecting our norms. Previously homogenous societies have been
transformed by migration. Creating a new culture with room to share such
divergent perspectives won’t be easy. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Our ability to achieve this
depends on communication and allowing everyone a chance to participate in the
ensuing conversation. Lots of world leaders marched with linked arms to display
their “solidarity” in Paris, but the gesture had more than a whiff of hypocrisy
and the ridiculous about it. One glance along the front rank and it was evident
that most were there for their own purposes. Everyone likes free speech as long
as it’s their speech that’s being protected. But perhaps it was, somehow,
appropriate to watch intolerance (wrapped in the clothes of free expression)
parading through streets where at one time guillotines were used to silence critics.
The idea that the West has nourished a long and remarkable tradition of
tolerance and freedom is quite bizarre. Even in Ancient Athens, where the
tradition of free speech supposedly originated, that city-state developed a
procedure of getting rid of troublesome orators. It ostracised people, forcing
them to depart for a decade. No recourse, no appeal. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The key is, as always, perspective.
Listening to other, marginalised voices assists this by challenging the status
quo. This is the ideal we need to nurture – that of discussion. Not shouting,
but conversing. Hearing and giving space to the ideas and perspectives of
others. Regrettably there doesn’t seem to be much value placed on this here in
Australia – by the left as much as the right. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Real insight doesn’t come from
the commonplace. In the wake of the Paris killings Lebanese author Dyab Abou
Jahjah added a new idea. He insisted he wasn’t Charlie either, asserting
instead, “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Je suis Ahmed</i>.” </div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It’s a tribute to the Ahmed
Merabet, the Muslim policeman callously shot on the pavement by the killers as
they escaped the building. A true defender of civilisation. </div>
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-60503553348362287352014-12-23T07:18:00.000+11:002014-12-23T07:18:13.067+11:00CHRISTMAS IN AUSTRALIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST<div style="text-align: justify;">
It's Christmas time, and Santa's little elf has good reason to be satisfied with himself. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://static.theglobalmail.org/cache/b0/21/b021650ce167fd1f43c1997ba45441c7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://static.theglobalmail.org/cache/b0/21/b021650ce167fd1f43c1997ba45441c7.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Christopher Pyne's advertising campaign's a real treat!</i></div>
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<br /></div>
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But I'm not sure we will be hearing much about our forces in the Middle East this Christmas. </div>
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<a href="http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2011/12/27/1226230/869367-australian-soldiers-from-mentoring-task-force-at-christmas.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2011/12/27/1226230/869367-australian-soldiers-from-mentoring-task-force-at-christmas.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Who ever thought anyone would be nostalgic for TK?</i></div>
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As this article for the Canberra Times suggests. </div>
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Merry Christmas. You don't have to believe in anything to enjoy the presents . . . </div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">THE MOST PRECIOUS GIFT OF ALL<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Joyous Christmas! It’s that
wonderful time of year when our minds are allowed to turn into happy slush; prodded
into dazed stupefaction by jingles and gaiety until we remember what the true
meaning of life actually is. So let’s pause for moment to appreciate the marvels
and ingenuity all around us. And where better to begin than with our very own government.
</div>
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Let’s hear some hearty applause,
first, for Santa’s very own little elf, the witty Christopher Pyne. Think he
was downhearted when his university reforms failed to pass the Senate? No! A
mere hiccup; no more discomfort than a couple of champagne bubbles tickling
your nose, eh, Christopher? Everyone can learn from the way our merry trickster
has reacted to the obstacle put in his path. </div>
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If you don’t like the cards
nature’s dealt you – ignore them! Pretend the setback never happened and turn
to advertising to make everything right again. This is exactly what our friend
the clowning funster has done. Launched a marketing campaign that one can only
conclude is designed to get us laughing out loud. He couldn’t really believe
we’re that stupid, could he . . . </div>
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The ad’s amateur production
values offer not a hint that a lot of your money’s been spent on expounding this
tosh. The video’s so ridiculous it’s clearly designed to be humorous. Perhaps Joe
Hockey got his millions and billions confused (again) when he was handing out
money to fund the campaign. But who cares? Every other way of convincing the
public the government’s got the right idea has failed – so why not see if silly
advertising campaigns can do the trick? Alas, simply informing us that black is
white is unlikely to change anyone’s mind. Yet all’s not lost, for the
government’s providing priceless fun for all as we watch young Christopher
making merry mischief. You can guess at the sophistication of the message from
the opening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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“Higher learning leads to higher
earnings,” intones the bubbly voice of a young woman, fairly brisling with
barely hidden excitement. She’s doubtless already acquired double degrees in
law and statistics but, perhaps more importantly, she’s paid for them already. Of
course she has – nobody could possibly be that enthusiastic if they faced an
ever-increasing mountain of future debt still to be paid off. Then comes a graphic.
This is mellifluously described (on the education website) as follows: “<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Stack of gold coins and green dollar
notes increasing in size with male wearing glasses with Text: “Higher Earnings”.<span style="color: grey;"> </span></span>Crowd Cheering” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(sic)</i>. This gives you a pretty clear idea of the intellectual level
at which the government’s decided to pitch its campaign. </div>
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<br /></div>
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With barely 68 half-true words,
Pyne demonstrates that taxpayer funded enjoyment is priceless. </div>
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<br /></div>
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It’s tempting to go on. But when
I completed my degree in column-writing (Bachelor of Unlikely Life Lessons), I
was taught any piece appearing in the days before Christmas must possess moral
gravitas. So let’s extrapolate from this example: what can this advertising
campaign possibly tell us about the world? Why, never to trust anyone, of
course! </div>
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<br /></div>
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You may occasionally wonder why
the media exists. It’s a good question with an answer that’s beginning to
appear increasingly irrelevant to our way of life. The internet has hit newspaper
sales hard and is about to utterly destroy the free-to-air TV model. But don’t
mistake the disintegration of a transmission technology (papers, television)
for the elimination of communities. We don’t live alone and can achieve so much
more by being together. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Just before her own colleagues
booted her out of office, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher famously
insisted “there is no such thing as society”. Her point was that every
individual needed to be self-reliant rather than bossed around and provided for
by the state. But what her individualistic philosophy missed was that none of
us can achieve anything without a framework to work within; and many of us need
– through no fault of our own – a bit of assistance on our way through life. </div>
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Society makes business possible –
not the other way around. This is something the government’s just discovering,
which is why it’s now turning to a mass advertising campaign as part of a
desperate effort to convince us of something that’s so obviously incorrect. Don’t
believe the inane blandishments that everyone will be better off if children
are forced to bear the cost of education: any costs will always be passed on. Nothing
is ever free in the new world order. The only question is who pays and are
there some social goods that should be provided for free, in order to keep the
world working smoothly. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The government’s changes are
simply an extension of their basic philosophical position, one that asserts the
role of the individual and minimises the role of the state. But the trouble
with the higher education changes is that they dramatically shift the line
separating these two spheres, collapsing the role of society. Unfortunately,
without some way of ensuring opportunity, this simply entrenches pre-existing
privilege. Exactly the same process is currently occurring in China, where
those ‘with’ are grasping every chance to ensure they continue accumulating
more. Those ‘without’ have increasingly fewer opportunities to turn their lives
around. This process doesn’t make for a happy society – but if you don’t
believe such a thing exists, that probably doesn’t trouble you. It should. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
We’ll see how this particular
project goes over the coming year. Personally, I suspect a competent government
might be able to convince Australia to make this sort of radical change. This
current collection of clowns, however, is a different matter. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Oh, and one final thing. It seems
our troops in Iraq are still on ‘diplomatic’ passports. Baghdad doesn’t want
them doing any fighting. They prefer the Iranians. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-38367766508792438142014-12-16T08:36:00.004+11:002014-12-16T08:39:55.551+11:00AFGHANISTAN - SYDNEY<b>NOBODY </b>can be sure exactly how the terrible actions of a deranged lone gunman in Sydney will play out.<br />
<br />
The "National Security Cabinet" is meeting as I write this . . . why, I'm not sure.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/12/15/1227156/425855-cf529e70-83f1-11e4-a8d6-4d3e748ac3ce.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/12/15/1227156/425855-cf529e70-83f1-11e4-a8d6-4d3e748ac3ce.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>Image courtesy The Australian </i></div>
<br />
I'd actually begun writing this column some time ago.<br />
<br />
It's not about terror, or Martin Place, at all.<br />
<br />
It's really about what we're doing - or rather, not doing - in Iraq.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2014/09/15/1227058/411570-4b817c1e-3bd6-11e4-bf5a-0352721e6660.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2014/09/15/1227058/411570-4b817c1e-3bd6-11e4-bf5a-0352721e6660.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>SAS soldiers - image from Herald Sun</i></div>
<br />
There are certainly no troops fighting against Daesh, at any rate.<br />
<br />
I had to rewrite the column to reflect the events in Sydney. It's a pity that those events have meant the impact of the piece will inevitably be diluted . . .<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A HUNDRED DAYS OF TERROR<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
So. Terror has come to Sydney. Violence
has a habit of doing that – it spreads like a cancer, mutating and destroying
as it swells. Senseless, stupid people believe the bile spread by others and,
inspired by hate, lash out until, provoking further hostility until it ends in
annihilation. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It’s impossible to understand
what emotion could possibly inspire what occurred in Sydney. And that’s exactly
why an intellectual response to the violence is so important. What’s so
disappointing is that our – Australia’s – actions in the Middle East are
actually so irrelevant to what’s occurring that they never have provoked any
response – let alone what’s occurred in Sydney. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It’s a hundred days since Tony
Abbott declared the Islamic State to be a “death cult” and dispatched – with
great fanfare – RAAF aircraft and Special Forces to destroy it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But what’s happened? Not heard
much about how the war’s been going recently? There’s probably a reason for
that. Our forces in the Gulf have been ready to do whatever’s required, but
that’s irrelevant. Look, rather, at the politics of hype. Instead of
extinguishing ISIL we’ve helped it mutate. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Our Superhornet strike aircraft
arrived with a bang – literally. They’ve continued operating (although the last
mission we’ve been told about was in early November). But they’re still based
in another country, three hours flying from the operational area. There are
perfectly safe airbases in Southern Iraq, but it seems we’re not welcome. Why?
If we’re doing such good work, why should taxpayers be paying a premium just to
fly the length of the Persian Gulf simply to arrive over Iraq? Defence says it
will provide regular briefings on what our aircraft are doing. The last
briefing was on November 25<sup>th</sup>. The last confirmed air mission on the
web-site yesterday was on November 3<sup>rd</sup>. Defence claims it’s
operating “most days over Iraq” but won’t tell us what’s happening. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Baghdad doesn’t seem to want our special
forces, either. At first these soldiers couldn’t even enter Iraq. We’d rushed
them over after a slew of warnings that Baghdad was about to fall (remember
those?) but then they waited in the desert. And waited. It seemed Tony Abbott’s
office couldn’t even be bothered to check if the Iraqi’s wanted assistance
before we sent troops. Any enthusiasm still appears equivocal. The Iranian Quds
Special Forces are busily fighting the battle; we’re not. The Quds are training
and fighting and killing alongside increasingly powerful Shia militias and
revenge is a terrible thing, as civilians in the Sunni dominated north are
discovering. Defence said yesterday that our troops are “largely within the Baghdad
diplomatic security centre” . . . in other words, doing nothing. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Without a Status of Forces
Agreement the only way to get our boots on the ground was by issuing them all
diplomatic passports. It seems the troops are still in limbo. Meanwhile the war
is going on without them. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Australian Strategic Policy
Institute will today hold an open seminar on the first hundred days of the war.
It will be interesting to hear what the real analysts have to say about what’s
been going on, because what’s coming from defence isn’t clear at all. That’s
not the military’s fault. This was always a political deployment – one that’s
finally come back to bite us here at home. What’s happened in Sydney will feed
back into the political mix here, of course, and that won’t be good for Labor.
But we need to ask why – what brought the terror over here and what are we
contributing to fixing the problems in the Middle East. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
There’s been quite a lot about
the problems in the PM’s office. Much of the current dysfunction’s been
attributed to Peta Credlin, but that’s not fair because she’s not the only problem.
At a time like this it’s cheap to score political points. But ask yourself,
what has Abbott done to reduce the likelihood of terror coming to our shores? Our
PM’s international expeditions have been a succession of amateur explorations disasters.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Remember on his early visit to
China when, as soon as he got off the plane, Abbott declared we’d nearly found the
wreckage of MH 171, the plane that had crashed somewhere in the Indian Ocean?
Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston had been extremely cautious and warned against
such optimism; Abbott brushed any doubt to one side. Unfortunately the black
box still hasn’t been discovered, many tens of millions of dollars later.
Strike Two. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Then there’s the Ukraine. Abbott
wanted to send a battalion to hold the area around MH 17’s crash site and
promised to “shirtfront” Putin. Well, turned out he couldn’t do either. He
couldn’t match his rhetoric with action and all that big talk turned into so
much noise. Strike Three. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Now there’s Iraq. The real point here
is that we don’t have a clue what’s actually happening from a military
point-of-view. Why not? Possibly because the our forces are so irrelevant to
what’s actually happening that the government’s not trumpeting the fact that
our soldiers are doing nothing over there while terror’s come over here to
stalk our own streets. Strike Four and you’re out. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As of last week Abbott knew he
had a problem. That’s why he said he wanted to hit the “reset” button. But that
was then. What happened in Sydney yesterday has transformed politics. It’s
still too early to understand what’s occurred but what is certain is that today,
Australians will feel far more threatened by what’s occurring in the Middle
East than they did yesterday. Unfortunately the military activities we’re
engaging in appear unlikely to make us any safer than if the troops weren’t
there at all. Unfortunately, nobody’s told the terrorists that. Until they do
we will continue living with the war over here. </div>
Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-46106653970962230662014-12-02T16:55:00.000+11:002014-12-02T16:55:17.786+11:00A NEW SUBMARINEWe want to buy a new submarine.<br />
<br />
The only question is; which one?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/barracuda/images/1-submarine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/barracuda/images/1-submarine.jpg" height="154" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>A French nuclear submarine - one we won't be getting</i></div>
<br />
The problem is the government won't share any of its thinking about the project.<br />
<br />
And this is not the only area where the government's failed to explain its thinking, as this column for todays Canberra Times pointed out . . .<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">WE ALL WANT A NEW SUBMARINE . . .<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Let’s get one thing straight – the
problem is not Senator David Johnston.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Asserting this is to in no way
excuse the Defence Minister’s hurtful hyperbole. Of course ASC can build a
canoe. He was foolish to suggest otherwise. What Johnston might have said, far
more accurately, is that when it (eventually) turned up the canoe would be
late, way over budget, and with a long list of faults requiring rectification. Or
that’s the experience with the three Air Warfare Destroyers we’ve purchased,
anyway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Johnston’s comment reflected
quite understandable frustration with the government shipbuilder. It is,
according to the Minister, a company in need of genuine reform and expertise at
the highest level. So why, then, did it put Sophie Mirabella on the board
straight after she lost her seat at the last election? How exactly has her
appointment sliced through the dysfunction? Or did she simply add to the problem?
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
This is the first point: the
cabinet doesn’t understand how government businesses work. Look at the way it
sought to emasculate the ABC. Inflicting punishment without bothering to recognize
how the organisation would pass this spanking through and out the other side. Tony
Abbott seems surprised that the corporation has turned the pain around. Of
course Mark Scott was going to shut Bush Telegraph – a program speaking directly
to the National Party’s core constituency. Naturally the Corporation’s hierarchy
would use the cuts to make changes it wanted and sheet the blame home to Tony
Abbott. He treated government like a workout at the gym. He’s heavily into pain
and punishment. Well, he’s getting it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Real change needs to be driven
from within. This government is attempting to impose it from without. Does
cabinet really wonder why all its own corporations seem to be so bad? Perhaps
the problem lies with the owner. Of course there’s no ‘buy in’ from management.
That’s because there’s been no attempt to get the organisations on board with what
the government wants. Cabinet doesn’t understand it how to ‘fix’ the government
businesses. Yet this is exactly why boards exist – to make sure the management
is doing what the owner wants. Don’t complain to the shareholders, the voters.
Fix it. Which leads to the second point: no ‘how’; no precision of objectives. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Even if cabinet itself is certain
of what it expects from its own businesses – and there’s no guarantee of this –
it’s failed to communicate these desires precisely and effectively. Even if
this small, bizarre group of repressed men (all from a similar background, all
with a similar ideological approach, all sitting around the oval cabinet table)
are able to frame their inchoate, deep private longings, they’ve failed to
communicate them. Perhaps they’ve been so busy hiding their inner desires for
so long that they can’t express them with any precision anyway. But just
insisting that things should be “better” isn’t good enough when <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">you are</i></b>
the government. Nobody would pretend everything’s going brilliantly, but this
doesn’t absolve cabinet from doing the work to articulate exactly what needs to
be better. What it expects and how this will be achieved. The seeds of failure
lie in the government’s approach. It’s outsourced all the hard work and now
seems surprised nobody wants to do it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
And this is the third, and
perhaps most crucial point: a failure of communication. This doesn’t simply
reflect the government’s incapacity to outline objectives. Communicating is a
two way street. You say something; you listen; you respond to what you’ve
heard. This dialogue ensures that everyone is part of the same process and on
the same journey. This is the most critical aspect of the current government’s
failure. This, more than anything else, explains Abbott’s abject failure. He
thinks being PM is about getting somewhere. It’s not. It’s all about the trip. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
We know, despite all the promises
and plans, we’re setting sail into uncharted waters each time we install a new
government. We hope they’ll keep their promises, but we know things crop up
unexpectedly. We know some promises are more important than others. What we
expect – and need – is to be kept happy as passengers in the boat. The way this
is done is through communication. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Bob Hawke was a master at this.
He listened and reacted, which is why Paul Keating called him “jellyback”.
Keating thought he knew better, won an election, stopped listening, and was
booted out as far and fast as possible. While wearing a hearing-aid, John
Howard became our second-longest Prime Minster. Kevin Rudd failed to listen to
his own party and was dispatched with extreme prejudice. Julia Gillard failed
to communicate with the electorate to become yet another failed leader. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
What’s the common trait of our recent
rush of one-term leaders? What explains why they haven’t measured-up? They knew
where they wanted to go: they just couldn’t be bothered bringing us along with
them. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
That’s Abbott’s problem. And the
submarine’s a classic example. I’m really very interested in this project –
from a military, industrial, technological and political point of view. A
number of sailors (thank you Commodore), companies (thank you SAAB), scientists
(thank you DSTO) and politicians have kept feeding me with information on the
submarine project – they must be wondering when I’m going to do an article on
it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Why haven’t I? This government’s been
too busy making problems for itself. It won’t let us in on any of the complex
decision trade-offs that come along with this huge decision. It thinks that all
its work is focussed on what happens around the cabinet table. It’s not. This
is our submarine. We want a part of it. Why is ASC supposedly so “hopeless”?
Why should we buy Japanese? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
A government that won’t explain
can’t be trusted. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-30966073043893767732014-11-29T07:02:00.000+11:002014-11-29T14:52:36.546+11:00WHOSE ABC?It's certainly not my ABC.<br />
<br />
I think it's Scott's, personally.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/content/dam/images/1/1/o/m/y/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.11w1r8.png/1417143645485.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/content/dam/images/1/1/o/m/y/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.11w1r8.png/1417143645485.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>My ABC . . .</i></div>
<br />
A CEO needs to believe in his vision. After years of being told he's correct, he inevitably grows until he believes <i>his</i> vision is the only correct one. He stops reflecting the desires of the shareholders/stakeholders, because <i>he</i> knows - or thinks he knows - what's needed.<br />
<br />
Scott's certainly not reflecting the desires of the government, as this column for today's Canberra Times makes clear . . .<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">WHOSE ABC? A PLAYTHING FOR EVERYONE<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
One of the first things you learn
in journalism is that there are many truths. So it's true that Tony Abbott said
he would not cut money from the ABC and the government has – unequivocally –
broken this promise. At the last election Abbott talked about a
"contract" with the Australian people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps you didn't read the fine print.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Equally, however, Mark Scott has seized his opportunity to shape the Corporation to match his vision of the
future. He hasn't sought to minimise pain. This is his ABC. You decide if it's
the same as yours.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
To Abbott first. Everyone's
(repeatedly) seen the promise he made on SBS just before the election. It was
plain, unambiguous and explicit, just like the one Gillard made about a carbon
tax. He insisted no money would be ripped out of the public broadcasters. But
the vindictive desire to punish was too strong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why should the ABC escape the belt tightening? The
government couldn't help itself. Make no mistake<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>– this is spiteful. It has nothing to do with
"efficiency". There’s plenty of money to be found for pet projects
like school chaplaincies and marriage counselling; more enough to cover what it
will get back from the Corporation. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><i> . . . this is spiteful. It has nothing to do with "efficiency". There’s plenty of money to be found for pet projects like school chaplaincies and marriage counselling . . . </i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
This is about priorities and
punishment.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But the ABC shouldn't be let off
either. It could have found this money in lots of ways, but a cold, calculating
decision was taken to slash exactly where it will cause the most (obvious)
grief. Scott’s using this as an excuse to usher in changes he wanted anyway. He
has radically changed the nature of the public broadcaster. It's news coverage
is now very broad, yet extremely shallow. It's not the organisation I joined
many years ago.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Some things needed to change.
When <span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">I was appointed the
(Bangkok-based) ABC Indochina Correspondent, for example, I had five staff, lived
in a huge house next to the Malaysian ambassador; and, best of all, wasn't even
30! Those were the days . . .</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">But all good things come to an end and a few years
later found myself a Project Officer in the new International division. I was
paying for my fun. That was when the first financial crunch arrived.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">The Aussie dollar was spiralling downwards. The cost
of operating, specifically communications expenses, was soaring higher. There
wasn't any more money in the pot. I was asked to find possible ways of saving
money. Naturally, to ensure my favoured option was chosen, I created the horror
alternative. This was closing the bureaux in New Delhi and Tokyo. India,
because so little of the output ever managed to fight its way onto the domestic
service and Japan, because of the enormous cost per minute of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>on-air broadcast time (by far the most
expensive). Correspondents would be replaced by a team of specialists based in
Sydney, who would fly in and out as required.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">My lovely manager, Ian Macintosh, was rightly
horrified.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">"Look," he said, "closing Delhi will
save virtually nothing and Tokyo is too important. We can't do it." <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">So we didn't. Other ways were found to shave money off
operating costs. Since that time the Corporation’s suffered another two decades
of belt tightening. The cumulative impact, most particularly on international
coverage, has been severe. This week the ABC finally implemented the dreadful
changes I'd recommended so long ago. Except that this time there won't be
any reinforcements located elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #343434;"><b><i> . . . The organisation that was once a respository of expertise no longer exists. It's been replaced by Scott's vision - what his thinks a </i></b></span><span style="color: #343434;"><b><i>public broadcaster should be . . . </i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #343434;">The organisation that was once a respository of
expertise no longer exists. The Corporation that prided itself as one of the
best broadcasters of the world, to the world, has already gone. Scott was
offered many hints and warnings to avoid funding being stripped from Television
Australia earlier this year. He wilfully ignored them. My wife, Catherine
McGrath, and other brilliant correspondents like Sean Dorney and Jim Middleton
departed in that cull. Now more exceptional journalists such as Greg Wilesmith are
already being shown the door. No ‘competative process’ for them, thanks very
much. That’s because they’d win, but they’re too much trouble; they’re not on
board with the new ‘vision’. The organisation can’t wait to jettison
experienced staff like this. The very people who are preventing it becoming a
shallow transmitter of the latest breaking story before moving quickly along to
its next breathless report. They’re not wanted in today’s ABC.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 20.25pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">And this is where we get back to the notion of
‘truth’. Scott has a clear idea of where he’s taking the Corporation. He’s
proved a particularly adept political player. Crossing this one-time Liberal staffer
without a plan to neuter, or emasculate him first was especially stupid. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">The difference between now and back when I did my
cost-saving exercise isn't that the Corporation has (proportionally) any less
money available to fund the bureaux. It’s just a matter of priorities. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<br />
<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-1178105069726036222014-11-25T06:21:00.000+11:002014-11-25T06:21:22.226+11:00NO VISION . . . <br />
<b>This</b> column reads a little more hysterically than I felt when composing it. It puts a case, rather than representing my considered opinion.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/content/dam/images/1/1/o/a/w/o/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.11sh8t.png/1416817271685.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/content/dam/images/1/1/o/a/w/o/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.11sh8t.png/1416817271685.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>A G20 debacle</i></div>
<br />
But this does seem to be where our politics is currently, as I wrote in the Canberra Times . . .<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">GOING NOWHERE, WITH THE NOWHERE MAN<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Tony Abbott has only himself –
and Julie Bishop – to blame. A vital opportunity to jump-start his prime
ministership with some international pizzazz was squandered. Obstinately and
adamantly, he insisted climate change would <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not </i></b>be mentioned in
Brisbane. Naively he thought, simply because Australia would be in the chair,
he could dictate what would be discussed at the G20. Pardon? The world doesn’t
work like that. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The US and China are gorillas –
they’ll do as they choose. They hinted – quietly and subtly – that the Brisbane
forum might be a good opportunity to highlight progress in the fight against
global warning. It was his chance for a ‘win-win’. Giving Abbott a chance to
shape the agenda and hop on board, saying, “Each country in their own way and
every step’s vital in this fight”. But the silly man said “no, the G20’s only
about the economy”. He was utterly determined to kick an own goal. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Being PM is a lot different from
being opposition leader. Maybe some day Abbott will understand this.
Unfortunately, he’s demonstrating no comprehension of his role to date. Perhaps
it’s his colleagues? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
That would be a ‘no’. Foreign
Minister Julie Bishop compounded the problem and turned it into a disaster. It’s
incredible that there’s any hint of her performing a ‘Gillard Option’ – you
know; unmarried woman charges in and saves the day just before the election,
insisting a good government has “lost its way”. Forget that now. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It was her inability to work out
what was coming in Brisbane, together with the incompetence of her department
to tell her what the superpowers were up to, that left the government
blindsided in the first place. Bishop’s fierce and unbending and has made
enemies in both Beijing and Washington. On more than one occasion she’s waded
in, pointing out how everyone else has got it wrong. Perhaps now she might do a
bit more listening and thinking. Maybe all that business-class travel is
getting her off on the wrong foot. Always ready to dish it out to those who
don’t perform she may now like to reconsider her role in the G20 fiasco. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Bishop’s appointment to cabinet
hints at Abbott’s second problem. Is his vision for Australia being
communicated? Is there any place for women? The answers to both these questions
would be more ‘no’s’. How could it be otherwise, when his inner circle includes
people like Peter Dutton (who?), George (port, brandy, anyone?) Brandis and
Kevin (undertaker) Andrews – not to mention the man who isn’t there, Arthur
(steel-trap) Sinodinos – and his picture for Australia’s future has us
curtseying and bowing, scraping and bobbing, to knights and dames?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vision? Hah! </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The signing of the agreement
between Barack Obama and Li Keqiang hit Australia with the surprise of last
weekend’s heatwave. It was a sudden wake-up call, but it’s not the first to
stun the inner-circle of the PM’s office. Perhaps they can see a way to change
this dynamic? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But again, another ‘no’ and the
evidence this time comes from the polling. The people Abbott turn to for advice
won’t be turning this ship around until it crashes up on the rocks. The proof?
Just look. The latest, authoritative, Newspoll left Abbott washed-up 45 to 55.
And that’s against Bill ‘Zinger’ Shorten, for God’s sake. It’s absolutely true;
the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. That’s why we have all
these intermediate numbers – to understand what will happen on the day itself. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Abbott’s problem isn’t one bad
set of numbers: it’s a stream of them. This has been going on far too long and
he can’t staunch the flow. His issue isn’t that he’s been implementing hard
decisions: so far, nothing’s been achieved. His predicament isn’t simply that
he’s been ushering in change. He frittered away the goodwill that saw him
installed with overwhelming support. Now he’s scoring lower polling numbers
than <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">any</i></b>
other first-term leader. Results this poor are stunning, because they shouldn’t
be happening. Yet Abbott can’t seem to escape. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
He’s been as unable to harness
the goodwill of incumbency, as he has been to occupy the Lodge. It’s as if residing
in this building is somehow necessary to demonstrate you are Prime Minister.
Gillard refused to move in; the people refused to endorse her at the election. Abbott
can’t move in (renovations won’t now be finished until well into 2015); and his
premiership’s been trapped in a loading zone. We’re still waiting for a
workable budget. We’re still waiting for direction. We’re still waiting for
Godot. Guess what? He’ll never arrive. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Lodge provides a perfect
metaphor for Abbott’s time in office so far. His builders are taking him to the
cleaners. The price for the renovations keeps increasing. So does the work
needed (“a slate roof first, gov’, then I’ll throw in some wiring, and how
about an ‘upgrade’ for the bathrooms?” – just how long can this be strung out?).
Abbott’s proven incapable of getting his job done and now he’s giving us the
‘builder’s excuse’. First one story; then another, and still no evidence that
any work has actually been completed. If you can’t manage a renovation, how can
you govern the country? Perhaps the truth is that Abbott’s actually just not
very capable. We thought he was a boxer, but he’s just been striking at shadows
all this time. When it’s come to the crunch it’s turns out there’s really just
nothing there. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
That’s why the electorate’s
unhappy. It knows this government’s becalmed. There’s no direction coming from
the PM’s office. We’re not waiting for a luff of wind to suddenly fill the
sails with air and push us where we need to go. The chaotic Senate can only be
made workable if it’s given a heading. That’s not happening with Abbott at the
helm. </div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-14853003737273300982014-11-20T11:09:00.000+11:002014-11-21T21:00:25.823+11:00The Russians are going! <div style="text-align: justify;">
Every now and then - well, regularly, actually - a story comes along that makes me wonder about journalism. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Last week's surprise was the reports of a Russian 'fleet' off the coast of northern Australia. </div>
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<a href="http://images.smh.com.au/2014/11/13/5982268/Article%20Lead%20-%20wide6314129911llj0image.related.articleLeadwide.729x410.11lc4z.png1415873293451.jpg-620x349.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://images.smh.com.au/2014/11/13/5982268/Article%20Lead%20-%20wide6314129911llj0image.related.articleLeadwide.729x410.11lc4z.png1415873293451.jpg-620x349.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Fairfax stoops to report the scare</i></div>
<br />
The ships arrival was greeted with <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/russian-warships-show-how-exposed-australia-is-and-raise-china-issue/story-fncynjr2-1227123699749" target="_blank">shock</a> and <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/russian-warships-heading-to-australia/story-fncynjr2-1227120928528" target="_blank">awe.</a><br />
<br />
Personally I preferred the cartoon adds embedded in this desperate attempt at whipping up a story out of nothing.<br />
<br />
But guess what? Today they've gone home. So what did it all mean? What was it all about? I suspect the answers to those two questions are "nothing" and "not much" respectively. Although you can swap the answers around if you prefer.<br />
<br />
Another link to the <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/stand-down-everyone-russians-arent-coming/2459301/" target="_blank">non-story</a>. Now even the press realise it was always rubbish.Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-19148009284289059682014-11-19T12:45:00.002+11:002014-11-19T12:45:38.638+11:00Does the Bishop speak Ex Cathedra? <b>The</b> labels have been checked and updated.<br />
<br />
It appears that Iran's Qasem Soleimani is, according to the Department of Foreign <a href="http://www.dfat.gov.au/sanctions/" target="_blank">Affairs</a>, a sponsor of terror.<br />
<br />
This would be the same Soleimani that our ally, Iraq, is embracing? <br />
<br />
Why yes, it is . . .<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-43214176312804813352014-11-19T11:51:00.000+11:002014-11-19T12:30:30.260+11:00Is the US still Number One? The Kokoda Foundation is a great Aussie think-tank dealing with Defence issues. But that doesn't make it infallible.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ts04-23URYA/maxresdefault.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ts04-23URYA/maxresdefault.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>Was Paul speaking ex cathedra?</i></div>
<br />
The estimable Professor Paul Dibb has just put out a Kokoda paper <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/china-will-never-eclipse-us-says-new-military-report/story-fnpebfcn-1227127603541" target="_blank">(reviewed by the equally estimable Cameron Stewart in the Oz) </a>, in conjunction with John Lee, arguing that a great deal of hype accompanies the assertions that China is overtaking the US as a military power.<br />
<br />
No argument there.<br />
<br />
China's military does lack modern combat experience and have major deficiencies in doctrine.<br />
<br />
My difficulty lies with his linking this to the assertion that therefore China "is not now or foreseeably a strategic peer of America". That's a big call.<br />
<br />
And, as I'm sure the Professor would admit, this doesn't necessarily mean that Beijing couldn't (either) achieve local superiority or severely compromise Washington's ability to act as it chooses.<br />
<br />
If Beijing thinks it's a big power, it will act as one. And who knows what might happen in future . . .<br />
<br />
PS - Like Kokoda, here's another view of China's <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/is-china-about-to-overtake-the-us-as-the-worlds-superpower/story-e6frflo9-1227125853817" target="_blank">economy</a>. The headline suggests China's soaring past the US, but if you read down you'll see the rise is not inexorable. Change is the only constant and nothing is certain . . . except that journo's love good headlines.<br />
<br />Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5928164776127538974.post-72017248049643409842014-11-18T08:12:00.002+11:002014-11-18T08:12:49.106+11:00IRAQ<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The </b>big question is how to help create a stable future for Iraq. </div>
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We're trying to do it with troops. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/1364376-3x2-340x227.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/1364376-3x2-340x227.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Mentoring Afghanis</i></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
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Is that the right way? I examined some of the issues involved in this article for the Canberra Times . . . </div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></div>
<a name='more'></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A HELPING HAND . . . <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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There are three stories –
narratives – to follow if you want to understand Iraq. The first is political:
the second, military. We’ll come to the third in a moment. Let’s begin with the
politics, the ‘why’ of war. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In mid-2006 Nouri al-Malaki
emerged from a pack of elected politicians to lead the country. He was US’s
choice and for years he proved adept at balancing the chaos; even if he did so
by increasingly preferring his own (Shia) majority at the expense of others.
Eventually, of course, this policy led to revolt in the Sunni north. ISIL
flourished and Iraq divided on sectarian lines. Malaki appeared unable, or
perhaps unwilling, to do anything about it. But the US knew the first step to
destroying ISIL is proper governance. It withdrew support for al-Malaki. Haider
al-Abadi became Prime Minister. It’s still too early to tell if this fiercely
independent nationalist and former electrical engineer will be able to reunite
the country. He’s from the same party as Malaki. Nevertheless (unlike his
predecessor) he’s both moderate and intelligent. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Over the weekend al-Abadi sacked
26 generals and commanders for incompetence and graft. This is a necessary
prelude to reinvigorating the army. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Not long ago the Western media
was terrified Baghdad was about to fall. Tony Abbott rushed our troops to the
Middle East. But al-Abadi knew the city was safe. ISIL’s forces are swift and
terrifying, but also light. They never had the capacity to fight for and hold
ground. The Iraqi’s knew this and weren’t going to be bullied by outsiders. That’s
why they made our troops wait so long for visas. Now, honour satisfied,
al-Abadi will accept assistance. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Iraq’s soldiers can’t defeat the
rebels by themselves. Or perhaps “won’t” is a better word. After all, who wants
to die for a government when you can’t be certain others will fight; if your
family will be cared for; or even that victory will follow? Forget the army.
It’s hard pushed to defend, let alone attack. Understand one thing: the
‘moderates’ have collapsed. Others, however, are doing the fighting and this is
where Australian support will be crucial. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Two elements are combating ISIL.
The first (and most lethal; to everyone, particularly the ordinary Sunni of the
country’s north) is the Iranian-backed Shia militia. The others are the few
remaining loyal Iraqi soldiers in the Golden Brigades. These are the
black-clad, blue and white scarf-wearing commandos that our soldiers (also
commandos, although somewhat more conventionally attired) will be advising.
It’s vital for Iraq they succeed. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
A Kurd leads this unit. Shia and
Sunni coexist in the ranks. These two brigades are the last remaining vestige
of the idea of Iraq as a ‘nation’. A recent facebook picture of Major General
Fadhil Bawari received almost 4,300 ‘likes’. He’s the officer who grabbed a
machine-gun and personally led an assault stabilising the front after an
ambush. That, of course, is <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">not</b> the
job of a commander. He’s meant to be in charge. The trouble is that all the
junior leaders with initiative, the people who should be doing the work of
corporals, have been killed off. Everyone’s experienced at war – hell, the
country’s effectively been continuously at war for the past three decades (since
the with Iraq in 1980) – but nobody remaining alive knows how to win. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Just watch videos of Golden
Brigade soldiers in action. No manoeuvre; just pouring buckets of bullets at
‘targets’. Accuracy’s a seemingly irrelevant consideration. Our commando’s
won’t be able to change the way they fight, but they can act as enablers in two
ways. The first is by training the reinforcements that the Golden brigade so
desperately needs. This will free up the general to command, rather than to
lead the charge. The second, and probably the most vital, way in which they can
help is by advising. Offering suggestions as to how to employ indirect fire and
how to dislodge ISIL positions. Calling in airstrikes. Providing medical and
logistic support. But this requires our soldiers to be up at the front, not
simply training. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Technology is vital here. Last
week in Canberra, Northrop Grumman M5 launched an impressive new theatre-level secure
communications system (the 400). We’ve got that. But what’s needed to support
the small teams we’ll send to Iraq is the smaller system (the 100). This allows
individuals to operate effectively. Currently, for example, a team of
signallers is required to keep a couple of advisors operating in the field. They
require a close protection group. They require transport. Add a medic just in
case and pretty soon you’ve added an army of ‘enablers’ simply to allow us to
‘enable’ the Iraqi’s. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
If our advisors are going to be
able to do their job they’ll need to be mobile supermen. These don’t come
cheap. Their deployment is going to cost us – not necessarily in lives – but
they will need support to get their job done. It needs to be accomplished
quickly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
ISIL is not strong yet this
doesn’t mean it will be easy to defeat. Restoring government in areas of chaos
will be problematic. This will particularly be the case if the Iranian-backed
militia get their first. This is, to some extent, a race. If the government is
too late a new terror may replace ISIL. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Oh, and the third story, the one
I promised at the beginning of this column? Well, this is the really tragic,
terrible yarn, because it’s the story of innocent people and families who’ve
been caught up in the spiral of violence and horror. And why? Simply because
they happened to be born in a country once ruled by a madman, invaded by
America (and Australia) without any plan for what might come next. We are
heavily implicated in the origins of the current conflict. Will our
contribution solve it? </div>
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Nic Stuarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14877966348508615476noreply@blogger.com0