SPECIALITIES

Training is vital; making sure people are properly and effectively equipped to do the job.

These are some thoughts on retaining specialities in the military . . .

POLITICIAN'S PAY

How much should we pay those who govern us?

Less than bloggers, perhaps?

This column considers the issue . . .

SWANSONG

One way of looking at the governments current problems is to focus on the overarching "narrative" pushed out by the leadership.

Currently, this is absent. Because of that everyone focus' on the economic story, which, as this column suggests, is going to pieces . . .

PAKISTAN MUST BE INVOLVED FOR THE SOLUTION TO WORK

This is simply recognising reality. There can be no purely military solution to the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan.

Regardless of what actually happens on the ground in that landlocked country, the need is to involve Pakistan in working towards fixing the situation.

Otherwise, as their column seeks to point out, failure is guaranteed . . .

STRATEGY, NOT MORE TACTICS

the year lurches to a close. At times like this it's traditional to consider what the new year might bring for the government. 

PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN

It's no use simply repeating that Pakistan is part of the problem in Afghanistan. It has to be incorporated as part of the answer as well.

The West is not doing this. This column makes the argument that at least part of the reason for this is that our politicians are too interested in their own domestic agendas and re-election campaigns . . .

DISTRIBUTING THE WEALTH

We keep being told of the "trickle-down" effect: if someone gets a pay bonus then it eventually trickles down and the entire economy benefits from it.

Unfortunately, less and less money appears to be trickling down at the moment and instead it's only a few who are managing to hoover up the rewards of our increasingly sophisticated world, as this column points out . . .

UNCERTAINTY

Saturday's Column. Another three diggers wounded in Afghanistan.

This column attempts to look at the confusing situation for those based in the Patrol Bases who live, cheek by jowl, with the Afghan soldiers they are helping.

AFGHANISTAN WRAP

How to make sense of what's happening in Afghanistan?

I certainly don't have any concept of the way things are going to play out after my brief month in the country with the Australian Defence Force.

Nevertheless, it's incumbent on journalists to attempt to understand some of the more significant and pressing concerns that surround us, which is how I've attempted to frame this particular column . . .

Impressions of Afghanistan

The unit of journalism is the 'story'.

Everything is composed around that idea. Beginning, middle and end. The narrative drives inexorably in one direction.

But sometimes it's not possible to fit everything into this formula, and that's why I chose a different approach with today's column . . .

Afghanistan, Again

Back to Afghanistan.  Getting here has taken a while, hence no posts for some time.

This time I'm over with the Australian Army. The result is, inevitably, I'm being exposed to a very different picture. In some ways it's more complete . . . in other ways there is a lot missing.

I'll put up the posts in the order they were filed to the Canberra Times . . .

POWER

What is real power?

Position is one thing, but it's no guarantee of the real ability to change the actions of others as this column attempts to show . . .

A TAX FORUM WHERE NOTHING HAPPENS . . .

Wayne Swan's ideal moment - everyone focussed on him.

But don't expect anything will actually happen. That would mean doing something and risk changing the status quo.

The trouble is that by doing nothing we actually are making decisions, because of the flow on effects. If you want to spend money on the CDF's salary there won't be enough to pay for musical instruments for military bands, as this column suggests . . .

JULIA WILL DECIDE THE MANNER OF HER GOING

Everyone's gotten very excited about the need for Julia Gillard to keep moving forward until she's finally out of the picture.

This column simply makes the point that the delicate balance of parliamentary numbers makes it clear that she will decide both who comes to the Lodge and the manner of their coming.

It also reviews Susan Mitchell's new book on Tony Abbott.

LABOR'S PROBLEM

Late again, I'm afraid, but the message remains valid.

Labor will not find succour while Gillard is at the helm . . .

THE HEAT IS ON

This column (which appeared in the CT yesterday) isn't meant to suggest that Tony Abbott is under any threat from Julia Gillard.

Nevertheless, the demands for some positive policies will continue. As will, I suspect, concern about the way the coalition is being hi-jacked by a small minority of loud extremists . . . the sort of people who deny the science about climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE - THE REAL BATTLE

The Gillard government has struggled since its formation.

Now the agenda has turned to climate change. 

This is the one area where Tony Abbott's weak points are displayed most prominently, as this column makes clear . . . 

LEADERSHIP

Polls, leadership, and policy.

You wouldn't think it's too hard to get the order of importance right. This is my effort to assist our modern politicians . . .

FINDING POLITICAL POLICY

Nielsen normally provides some of the most authoritative polling results in the country. That’s why no one can question the findings of yesterday's report, insisting that bringing back Kevin Rudd would catapult Labor to an “election winning lead". That's true – today. But it doesn't mean that he, or anyone else for that matter, could turn into the party's savior.

While providing vindication for the former PM, there’s absolutely no guarantee that the voters would retain their loyalty to Rudd if he was brought back. Polls represent a snapshot, answering simply the questions that are being posed at that particular time. Experienced analysts (like Nielsen's John Stirton) can interpret the entrails, but a simplistic answer (like replacing Julia Gillard) will rarely work in the real world. This requires harder answers.

After all, what is one to make of another of yesterday's findings? It's difficult to believe, for example, that six percent of Green voters are actually in favor of asylum-seekers being just simply towed back out to sea – and yet that's what the poll asserts. I don't doubt the results; it's just that these people are probably indicating their frustration about the other choices that are being presented by the political parties.

What people want is a solution. Only someone completely stiff-necked could assert there is no merit in some combination of Nauru, Malaysia, as well as onshore processing, and yet neither of the major political parties appear to want to accept this.

That's why polls should remain just a tool to used by political apparatchiks, rather than a method for formulating policy. Perhaps if Labor returned its focus to actually governing properly and effectively, many of its other problems would disappear.

Obsession with the stain of Rudd's assassination has given Gillard the image of some kind of Lady Macbeth. No one would be surprised if she was seen pacing the corridors of the Lodge late at night crying, “out, out, dammed spot" as part of a futile effort to expunge him from the country’s corporate memory. It won't work. The party has reached its nadir. All that can save it is good policy.

Tragically for the Prime Minister, her own personal representation has already been indelibly engraved in the public mind. It's a picture utterly devoid of authority. When Gough Whitlam created the modern party by uniting the workers with the intellectual left, he united the two forces with one key idea: The Leader. It became part of the party's founding myth. The idea was simple. Because the stresses of modern life were pulling in so many different ways it was necessary to have someone above the chaos that could envisage a bounteous future and then guide the country to this Promised Land.

This was the formula followed by Bob Hawke and Paul Keating and, excitingly, by Kevin Rudd right through the year-long election campaign of 2007. Gillard trashed this idea the minute she admitted it was somehow ‘wrong’ of her to begin shifting her own personal knickknacks into the Lodge until the occupancy was legitimised by the people at an election. Then came “real Julia", another disaster all of her own making. The problem was not just the suggestion that we'd somehow got hold of the idea she was someone she wasn't, the issue was the familiarity. She was the common, first name, girl next door. Fine for a date, perhaps, but not someone we could look up to, a Lady Thatcher for our time.

Tomorrow night the ABC will unwittingly continue this relentless assault until the last few remaining shards of her dignity have finally been stripped away. It's far too late to attempt to re-make the product or engage in rebranding exercises. The seeds have been too long germinating. Remember the tooing and frowing on the night Gillard was finally pushed to overthrow her master? She should have stormed into his office, thumped the desk, and demand the primeministership as of right, because she was confident she was the right person to lead the nation. Instead she dithered, wondering whether to strike, giving Rudd time, consulting with the plotters. This planted the seeds of doubt in our minds. Today they have blossomed into flower.

And yet the government cannot afford to cut her down. Instead, in what little time it has left, it desperately needs to refashion its corporate myth. An alternative is readily to hand. It was even used, briefly, by Hawke in the fading days of his government. Gillard needs to forego the attempt to portray herself as anything other than the leader of the board. The only way forward is for her to push good policy to the forefront.

The only way to save herself is by dissipating the focus as quickly as possible, and even that will not be fast enough. When Gillard assumed the leadership she made the mistake of identifying Rudd's three critical failings: mineral resources tax, action on climate change, and an influx of asylum seekers. He bequeathed a legacy she's been utterly unable to solve. If she can find a solution, based on good policy, other achievements of the government will be able to shine.

If Senator David Feeney, for example, makes a contribution it’s usually dismissed as that of powerbroker. That's true. But it also ignores one of the most major structural changes to the Army since the Howard government abolished the Ready Reserve Scheme back in 1996. Back then the force was hollowed out. There were more rifles, but no one to support the troops. The reserves lost focus and funding. The sudden crisis in East Timor exposed the fragility of this structure. The effective result has been the slow cannibalisation of the reserves in order to support our deployments.

Now Feeney’s behind a real push to integrate the different forces. Although problems remain (particularly the financing of the new force) the result is good policy. It highlight’s the opposition’s failure to come up with any dynamic defence policies, reverting to cardboard cutout caricatures instead.

The only way the government can improve its polling is to focus on good policy. It may still be too late, but it will at least offer voters a choice.

THE ONGOING SAGA

We think of leaders as possessing special attributes. Many do. Others simply occupy the job.

Then there's Julia Gillard . . .

THE HIGH COURT & THE CONSTITUTION

This appeared in the Canberra Times last Saturday, and should have been posted at the same time.

It is, I believe, particularly important because it details how some people in the government appear not to understand the separation of powers upon which our constitution is based . . .

DAYS OF OUR LIVES . . .

The ongoing trials and tribulations of the Gillard government continue. No one knows how they will reach the end.

This post looks at their beginnings. Was it all the PM's fault, or does the problem reside deeper within the system?

GILLARD'S FAILURE

A fortnight ago the parliament returned after the winter break. Labor backbenchers still hoped that the clear air might provide a chance for Gillard to turn things around. Two weeks later it's obvious she can't.

The transition, the switch, the 'transfer' will occur, it's simply a matter of time. . .

QANTAS 'THE AUSTRALIAN AIRLINE'?

This should have been posted on Saturday.

Most Australian's have a love/hate relationship with Qantas . . . as you do with relations you can't get rid of.

The time has again come to ask some serious questions about the airline, and what we expect from it . . .

Vale Lockyer

Sometimes those who contribute most to our understanding of ourselves and the world around us aren't the biggest names or the most highly renumerated in the profession.

The Canberra Times printed this under the apposite heading: FROM BANGKOK TO THE BUSH, A REPORTER WITH INTEGRITY . . .

STRATEGY & OPERATIONS

I'm afraid I'm a bit of a nurd.

I get very excited by things like the difference between strategy and operations, which is why I was tremendously interested in a presentation by Hew Strachan at the ASPI Global Forces conference last Thursday.

Here's my take on what was said . . .

FINDING A BASIS FOR DEBATE

This is not a plea for the centre ground. The 'middle' can be as wrong as the edge. But debate does need to be rational . . .

THE MAINSTAY OF DEFENCE

Incredibly, according to a new book by Ian McPhedran, the Air Force and our defence hierarchy were making decisions that could have left the country without a vital component of force structure.

This column appeared in the Canberra Times on Saturday . . .

POLITICAL PHYSICS

Ah, politics.

Have you been enjoying it lately?

This column erupted, fully and perfectly formed, after a pleasant lunch with my old university friend Dr Leon Le Leu at that marvellous Thai restaurant in Yarralumla, followed by a violin, piano and poetry recital at the Polish Embassy . . .

AFGHANISTAN, AGAIN

This appeared yesterday (Saturday) in the Canberra Times.

There is a good argument to be made for staying in Afghanistan, but not as we are at the moment.

If you insist that our current course is the correct one, then you also have to admit we are losing the war . . .

THE NEW SUBMARINE

The biggest defence decision the country must make - the one that will define our forces over the next couple of decades - is what sort of submarine we should buy.

This summarises some of the arguments . . .

THE MEDIA WE DESERVE

Do we really get the media we deserve? 

Julia Gillard doesn't seem to think so. Unfortunately, her critique is based on the idea that the owner chooses what is published, and this doesn't explain the way the media works at all. 

If we want to improve journalism in Australia, this column suggests that the best way is to get a reliable, independent body to investigate the way the media works . . . 

AFGHANISTAN. WHY?

Another two deaths in Afghanistan . . . but ones that have a personal meaning for me.

Thanks to great help from a fantastic NGO, The Liaison Office, I was able to meet Jan Mohammed Khan. This week he died, at the place where I last saw him.

This piece tries to encapsulate some of the questions his assassination raises . . .

THE SECURITY DIMENSION

Labor is doomed to failure over its bid to introduce a Carbon Tax unless it broadens the agenda away from the immediate issue of 'how much will it cost?'; to 'how can we not afford it?'.

This column examines the security ramifications of not acting . . .

Carbon Tax

This column was originally printed in the Canberra Times (CT) on Tuesday a week before the Carbon Tax (CT) was announced.

(Oooh, how spooky . . . the initials of both institutions are "CT"! Is there a link? Think about it! I note that the plan was also announced after the 6th/6th. Is it the work of Satan? Probably not, although you wouldn't know that to listen to the outrageous hype being encouraged by some of our politions at the moment.)

Here it is . . .

Let's Try Again

Back.

Sorry about the break in transmission. I know it sounds ridiculous, but I lost the password and then began attempting to log in while having a page running with another google address, etc, etc . . .

Entirely my own fault. Now I have managed to solve my little problem I will begin posting regularly again (and also make up the posts I missed).

The big issue at the moment, of course, is that we finally have a carbon tax. Although I have significant problems with it, this column is a celebration of the fact that an Australian politician has finally managed to do something. Anything.

ASYLUM!

How should Australia deal with those seeking asylum?

Prior to the election, Julia Gillard told us that she had the answer. Her current 'solution' seems to be pleasing nobody . . .

CREATING SOCIETY

Who creates the sort of society we live in?

Lindsay Tanner can't help but blame the media in his recent book; "Sideshow - dumbing down democracy".

He's right, but at this column attempts to suggest there are a few other culprits as well, politicians especially . . .

(PS - Why does the esteemed Henry Rosenbloom, Publisher of Scribe, INSIST on not using Capitals for words that should be capitalised. such as "Dumbing Down Democracy"?)

THE FOOD OF KABUL

I've always wanted to write restaurant reviews, but it's a bit hard as a foreign correspondent.

This is an attempt at it, anyway . . .

R2P A FINE IDEA, DIFFICULT IN PRACTICE

The true test of an ideal is when it hits the reality of how it will work in the practical world.

That's is the problem with 'R2P' - a great sound-bite, but not something people will die for. And exactly when does it apply.

This column examines the issue . . .

DEFENCE IN A FURY

Over the past week the mood in Defence has quickly se-sawed.

The sparks are still flying over the comments by Stephen Smith about the culture of ingrained sexism in Defence.

This column - very different to my last - was written after a number of conversations with senior officers in the services/ It waz published on Saturday . . .

WORKING AS A JOURNALIST 2 - LISTENING TO PEOPLE

This was published in T2 today. It follows on from the last piece. As a journalist it's always vital to listen to what your contacts are saying . . . sometimes that's the way to get a far better story.

WORKING AS A JOURNALIST 1 - FINDING INFORMATION

This column, originally published in the T2 Section of the Canberra Times on Thursday 14 April, describes some of the difficulties faced by a Foreign Correspondent in attempting to find out what's really going on.

WHY HAVE AN ADFA

The recent scandals in the Australian Defence Force have overlooked the real problems with the institution.

These are structural. Until these are fixed the problems will continue.

MONEY - THE CAUSE OF ALL EVIL

The economy in Afghanistan is severely unballanced. It will remain almost impossible to re-establish the country while this is the case . . .

THE (AUSTRALIAN AUTHORISED) STRONGMAN

This piece ran on Saturday. It's about 'MK', a very clever Afghan who's on his way to bigger things . . .

PAKISTAN'S REACTION TO AUSTRALIA'S POSTURING

Sorry, I've gotten a bit behind while attempting to keep the filing of columns up. This News story ran on Monday 28th March . . .

AUSTRALIA'S HEROIN CROP

Shh! No onc's allowed to talk about the poppy crop we're condoning . . .

THE POPPY CROP

This year's crop of poppies are about an inch high in Oruzgan - and the farmers are predicting a boom crop.

This story's about the completely ineffective 'war on drugs' . . .

THE PALACE OF PEACE

Everything is tragic in Afghanistan, but perhsps nothing more so than reminders of the past and what could have been . . .

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Happy New Year, well, Narouz, anyway.

Afghanistan (sensibly) uses the Persian calender, where the first day of Spring is celebrated as the beginning of the year. Yesterday I watched as a flower blossomed, springing into life in front of my eyes.

But with this come questions over the countries future, and what will happen next . . .

SPY GAMES

In the years of Empire the European powers sought to extend their grip over central Asia. This rivalry quickly became known as "the great game".

In Islamabad it still sometimes appears as if the new powers are playing out their own spy novel fantasy thrillers, without regard for the people of the region.

This was my take from Islamabad . . .

KILLING DOESN'T LEAD TO VICTORY

We've been, quite rightly, distracted by Lybia and Japan over the last week. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the killing goes on . . .

BOMBING LYBIA

The idea of bombing Lybia seems to be pobular in the West at the moment. But, as this short piece of analysis makes clear, a few problems remain . . .

A BRIDGING COLUMN

Possession of a grand strategy is vital.

Nations, as well as individuals, need to understand where they are going.

I'm about to travel to Afghanistan. This column is intended as a 'bridge', moving from the entrails of Australian politics to the broader scope of strategy.

THE VACUMN AT THE TOP

Tony Abbott's strategy appears (in the light of todays Newspoll, showing Labor's support bumping along at its lowest ever level) to be scoring points.

It's a pity that he's winning by simply opposing, rather than putting forward an alternative view of how the country can 'move forward'.

A MILITARY DEBACLE

If five of our submarines were sunk, leaving us exposed, it would be a disaster. If our entire amphibious fleet was destroyed, we would demand vengance from the power that dismantled the capability.

When it happens in peace-time - we just shrug.

Is no one to be held accountable for the crisis in our military?

WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE NAVY?

Something has gone very wrong.

In Feburary Defence Minister Stephen Smith was informed that the entire Navy's amphibious cababliity had rusted so badly it couldn't be used. This article seeks to understand why and how this has happened.

COMPLEXITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

This column began with a simple idea: complex systems are particularly vulnerable to disasters.

Unfortunately this gets a bit buried under the current political analysis that begins the piece. If you're interested in some further analysis try this piece from the Financial Times; http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c7fa72e-3d20-11e0-bbff-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss&ftcamp=crm/email/2011221/nbe/Comment/product#axzz1FD5R5QbD

THE BATTLE-LINES ARE DRAWN

Finally, Labor has a carbon policy.

It remains to be seen how effectively the party will be able to sell it, nevertheless, Julia Gillard's announcement on Thursday has established the terrain for the new battle-ground of politics.

RELIGION AND CULTURE

What is at the centre of our actions? What drives us and defines us as people? Is it religion, a desire for wealth, or something different?

Far from seeing the Middle East suddenly 'bursting into flames', the recent revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia (although obviously incorporating significant violent elements) have been characterised by peoples power.

This column investigates the critical element that caused the change of government in Egypt. From this startpoint the motivations of people can be understood. We are not defined by religion unless we want to be - and that's the dissapointing element of recent statements by members of the Liberal party.

AND NOW THE LIBERALS

So much has been going wrong for the government that there hasn't been much opportunity to focus on the Opposition. This column strives to redress the balance . . .

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Alas, late posting (again!),

Which is a pity because this commentary on Ross Babbage's recent analysis on China provoked a number of people within the strategic community.

LEADERSHIP, WHAT LEADERSHIP?

Australian politics is in dire straits.

Nothing is going right for Julia Gillard. Tony Abbott isn't putting forward any policies, but neither is Labor. A vacuum occupies centre stage.

ANOTHER AWARD? FOR WHAT REASON?

Julia Gillard's announced another award. The details aren't clear . . . it appears she might have gotten a little carried away by the flooding in Queensland and felt the need to suddenly announce something - but that dosn't matter.

As I suggest here, what we really need is to distinguish between those who are getting their award for doing their job and those who've done something else to contribute to the community.

WHERE IS THE TRUST?

Why are so many Australian's not prepared to contribute to the government's flood relief fund? This column attempts to examine how our trust in other people has vanished.

EDUCATING PEOPLE OR SIMPLY TEACHING SKILLS

What are we attempting to do when we try to educate young Australians?

It's up to them to decide what they get out of tertiary education - but it would be nice if we had a guide as well. What sort of person is the 'ideal' Aussie?

This piece asks the question, rather than attempts to answer it:

WHO'S IN CONTROL AT UNIVERSITY

This piece was informed by a bit of research from the Melbourne Institute, a couple of years ago. This found students with an "internal locus of control" (unsurprisingly) achieved better outcomes at uni than those who were "externally directed".

When admission to courses is allocated by the universities according simply to the TER marks students achieve, it seems apparent that aspirants for places aren't starting off on the right foot. Would be students need to be more empowered, although this is simply one of many issues explored below . . .